BMW Championship: Golf One and Done Picks Strategy (2026)
The BMW Championship is the last One and Done pick opportunity in many pools, and there are lots of options to consider for your pick.
by Jason Lisk - Aug 18, 2026
Viktor Hovland won some One And Dones with his victory at the BMW Championship in 2023, can he do it again? (John Adams/Icon Sportswire)
The vast majority of One and Done pools come to an end this week with the BMW Championship. It’s a tournament with $3,600,000 going to the winner, and $20,000,000 total being paid out to the 50 golfers that made the cut into the field.
The BMW Championship is taking place this week at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri, as unlike last week’s playoff event, this one rotates locations regularly. The last PGA event played here was the 2018 PGA Championship, won by Brooks Koepka (not in the field). Before that, you have to go back to the 2008 BMW Championship for another event on the main PGA Tour here. Many of the golfers in this week’s field have either never played here or played only in 2018.
It’s a Par 70 and will play at just under 7,500 yards, so distance is going to be a factor this week.
Here’s what else you need to know as you decide on your Golf One and Done picks this week.
The BMW Championship Favorites
With 50 golfers in the field, you are likely looking at finding your best available options, unless you want to go further down to try to be unique.
Scheffler, coming off a dominant victory last week, is the favorite yet again.
Top 15 in Win Odds
- Scottie Scheffler +300
- Rory McIlroy +1300
- Xander Schauffele +1700
- Ludvig Aberg +1750
- Sam Burns +1800
- Cameron Young +1850
- Tommy Fleetwood +2000
- Matt Fitzpatrick +2350
- Chris Gotterup +2400
- Si Woo Kim +2700
- Viktor Hovland +2700
- Hideki Matsuyama +2700
- Patrick Cantlay +2900
- Wyndham Clark +3000
- Justin Thomas +3400
The BMW Championship Popular Picks
You will want to check your individual pools and see who those in front or immediately behind you, as that will best inform how you should play it this week. Here are our estimates for the likely most popular picks based on who is available on entries.
- Viktor Hovland 8.6%
- Sam Burns 8.5%
- Wyndham Clark 6.8%
- Patrick Cantlay 6.0%
- Justin Thomas 5.8%
- Tom Kim 5.8%
- Ludvig Aberg 5.6%
- Chris Gotterup 5.0%
- Hideki Matsuyama 4.5%
- Jake Knapp 4.4%
Playing to Your Standings and Position in The BMW Championship
The most imperative thing at the BMW Championship, if it is the final event, is to play to where you stand in the contest.
What position are you capable of getting to? You should evaluate this both in terms of if you can hit a winner, but also more realistically if you just have a top 10-type performance.
How many entries can pass you, or can you pass? This might dictate how unique you need to be and you likely want to study who the other entries ahead and behind you are likely to pick, if the number is not really large.
Knowing who others you need to pass are likely to pick, and just as importantly, cannot pick, are big considerations. If entries in front of you pick the same golfer, you are drawing dead to pass them no matter the result. In a similar vein, if you can pick a golfer that others behind you also pick, you directly block them from having a chance to surpass you. You cannot likely cover everyone but should consider the most likely candidates.
You should count up both the amount you need as a target, and how many you need to pass, to tell you just how far down the board. We would project most of the Top 20 will draw some picks. Golfers like Jake Knapp, Maverick McNealy and Kurt Kitayama show up as one of the top three options on enough entries that we expect them to draw close to 3% of picks or more. The tier break where you are likely to see golfers start to trend below 1% is below Min Woo Lee on the odds board.
2026 BMW Championship Payouts
Finally, here is how much money can be earned at the BMW Championship for a solo finish, to inform your risk and reward decisions:
| Finish | Money Won |
|---|---|
| 1 | $3,600,000 |
| 2 | $2,160,000 |
| 3 | $1,360,000 |
| 4 | $990,000 |
| 5 | $830,000 |
| 6 | $750,000 |
| 7 | $695,000 |
| 8 | $640,000 |
| 9 | $600,000 |
| 10 | $560,000 |
| 15 | $382,000 |
| 20 | $282,000 |
| 25 | $197,000 |
| 30 | $153,000 |
| 35 | $122,000 |
| 40 | $100,000 |
| DFL | $66,000 |
With every single golfer making at least $66,000, and the Top 30 getting over $150,000, you probably need to target at least a $150,000 buffer if not more for your targets. Down by $500,000, you probably need to place Top 8 or higher to have a chance. Down by a million, a third place finish may or may not be enough (and tie for 3rd likely is not).