Arnold Palmer Invitational: Golf One and Done Picks Strategy (2026)

We run through odds, popularity, stats, and future value to find the best Arnold Palmer One and Done Picks and sleepers this week.

by Jason Lisk - Mar 3, 2026

Xander Schauffele makes for an interesting One and Done pick at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. (Photo: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

Time to grab your favorite lemonade and tea drink, as we go to the Arnold Palmer Invitational for this week’s One and Done picks. It is the second event in Florida, taking place at Bay Hill Club in the Orlando area.

We have been on a run of some extremely low-owned golfers winning. Last week, it was Nico Echavarria winning the Cognizant Classic in stunning fashion over chalky pick Shane Lowry, who had a late “double bogey + double bogey” collapse. Before that, we had both Jacob Bridgeman and Collin Morikawa come through as winners despite being picked on fewer than 1% of entries.

The opportunity is still wide open in most One and Done pools, with few contestants having hit multiple big winners so far. We’ll break down the top One and Done picks this week, who’s likely to be popular, and how you should approach this key event.

Plus, as a bonus, we do have a short section on the other event this week, the Puerto Rico Open, at the bottom of the article.

Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done Picks: Purse Info

The Arnold Palmer Invitational has a total prize purse of $20,000,000. Just like the Genesis from two weeks ago, it features a cut (Top 50 and ties) and has more prize money allocated to the top. The winner receives $4,000,000.

That puts it behind only The Players Championship and (probably) the Masters and U.S. Open once their official 2026 purses are announced.

With no semi-popular winner so far in a big-money event, it is another good week to consider a top option.

If you want to see where this tournament’s purse ranks in your specific PGA One and Done pool, you can set up your pool entry in our Golf One and Done Picks product.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Overview for One and Done Pools

This analysis is a complement to the data in our product, which provides customized weekly pick grades that account for factors like:

• The total number of picks you need to make this season
• The specific tournaments included in your pool
• The golfers you’ve already used so far

Here are a few notable highlights for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational field:

• 72 golfers in the field, with a cut. The Top 50 from last year’s FedEx playoff, plus some players who qualified through the AON Next 10 and Swing 5, along with some Sponsor Invites, round out the field. The Next 10 and Swing 5 qualifiers were finalized based on the results at Cognizant. As for the cut, the Top 50 and ties will advance to the weekend.
• Scottie Scheffler is your recent course history “Strokes Gained” leader: Surprise, surprise, Scheffler plays really well here (+3.3 SG over last six years) and has won twice (2022, 2024).
• Russell Henley broke through with a win here last year: Henley is the defending champion, winning last year after a 4th place finish the year before.
• Stars and longshots have won here: Scheffler has won here twice. McIlroy has won it once. Bryson DeChambeau has won it. Tiger Woods won here 8 different times (!!). But Kurt Kitayama was a surprise winner in his first-ever start here in 2023, and Matt Every won this event twice back-to-back in 2014 and 2015, the only two wins in his career.

Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done Picks Video

Jason Lisk and Stephen Andress will break down the Arnold Palmer Invitational options for One and Done in a video that will be out by the afternoon of Tuesday, March 3.

Be sure to SUBSCRIBE to the PoolGenius YouTube Channel so you don’t miss when each Golf One and Done strategy breakdown is released.

Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done Picks Advice

Below, we’ll break down the top Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done picks by looking at tournament odds, future value rankings, pick popularity, and the strategy behind when to use each golfer.

Top 10 in Win Odds

Here are the top 10 (and ties) in win odds for the Arnold Palmer Invitational as of Tuesday afternoon, March 3: