Who Will Win the 2026 Masters? Top 10 Contenders Ranked

We go through the Masters contenders, look at form and history, then rank our Top 10 golfers for the 2026 tournament.

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL - MARCH 15: Ludvig Åberg of Sweden plays a tee shot on the third hole during THE PLAYERS Championship on March 15, 2026 at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fl.

Can Ludvig Aberg build on his recent Masters success? (Photo: David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)

The Masters is one of the most predictable major championships, not in terms of picking the exact winner, but in the type of player who contends and makes a run at the green jacket.

Augusta National consistently rewards elite ball-strikers who arrive in form. Most of them also have a track record of success on the course. That pattern shows up clearly when you look at the data.

How We Ranked the Top 10 Golfers for 2026 Masters

To narrow down the top contenders for the 2026 Masters, we focused on three key inputs:

  • Current betting odds
  • Recent form (2026 results)
  • Strokes Gained performance at Augusta (over the past five years)

That yielded some interesting trends and observations when sorting through these potential 2026 Masters picks.

Recent Form

Recent form stands out right away.

Among the last 16 Masters champions:

  • 7 had won at least one event in the previous three months.
  • 11 had recorded a top-three finish earlier that year.
  • 13 had posted at least one top-five finish.

The last two winners without a top-five finish in the three months leading into the Masters were Hideki Matsuyama in 2021 and Sergio Garcia in 2017.

Course History

Course history is just as important.

The last six winners all gained at least +6.0 Strokes Gained at Augusta the year prior. The only winner in the last 16 years to miss the cut the year before was Patrick Reed in 2018. Half of those winners had already logged a top-five finish at Augusta in the previous three years.

Put together, the profile is pretty clear. You are looking for players in strong form, with elite underlying performance, and a proven ability to handle Augusta.

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Top 10 Golfers for the 2026 Masters

We combined all the data outlined above to build these rankings of the top 10 golfers most likely to contend at the 2026 Masters.

You can work through the list below, and we’ve also included a table later in the article with the key stats side by side so you can see how each player compares.

1. Scottie Scheffler

This one is pretty simple. Scheffler remains the most complete player in the world, and his track record at Augusta speaks for itself. He’s the clear favorite for a reason.

Yes, his form has not been as consistent so far this year, but he still has an early 2026 win at the American Express and is capable of turning things around quickly.

2. Jon Rahm

Rahm continues to perform at an elite level, regularly finishing near the top in LIV events. As a past Masters champion and one of the top players in the betting markets, he brings both proven success at Augusta and strong current form.

3. Bryson DeChambeau

DeChambeau’s previous Masters results were inconsistent, but he’s clearly figured something out over the last two years.

He played in the final group on Sunday last year and has done a much better job avoiding big mistakes early at Augusta, while still showing the ability to go low.

4. Ludvig Aberg

Despite limited experience at Augusta, Aberg has made an immediate impact with two strong appearances. His overall form and ball-striking ability make him one of the most dangerous young players in the field.

5. Xander Schauffele

Schauffele has been one of the most consistent performers at Augusta, even if he hasn’t broken through for a win. His game looks close to the level we saw in 2024 when he won two majors, and that makes him a strong contender again.

6. Rory McIlroy

The defending champion always comes in with added pressure, and McIlroy is no exception.

There are also concerns following a withdrawal at Bay Hill due to a back injury and a 46th-place finish at THE PLAYERS. Still, his upside at Augusta is undeniable.

7. Collin Morikawa

Morikawa has been consistently competitive at Augusta and already has a win this year at Pebble Beach. The main question is health after a withdrawal at THE PLAYERS, but when he’s right, his iron play makes him a natural fit here.

8. Patrick Reed

Reed’s Augusta résumé is as steady as anyone’s. He’s a past champion, finished in the top five last year, and has already picked up two wins on the DP World Tour in 2026. He knows how to manage this course as well as anyone.

9. Justin Rose

Rose came within a playoff of winning this event last year and continues to show he can compete on the biggest stages. His win at Torrey Pines earlier this season reinforced that he can still go low on difficult courses.

10. Cameron Young

Young hasn’t put together a full four-round performance at Augusta yet, but he’s shown flashes outside of one bad round last year. His recent win at THE PLAYERS is notable; both McIlroy and Scheffler won there shortly before their most recent Masters victories.

Honorable Mention

  • Matt Fitzpatrick – A winner this year with solid results on tough courses and a steady Augusta track record, but still searching for the kind of spike performance needed to win here.
  • Hideki Matsuyama – A former champion with clear upside at Augusta, though recent form and consistency raise some questions.
  • Tommy Fleetwood – Consistent performer who regularly makes the cut here, but hasn’t yet shown the scoring burst needed to contend late on Sunday.
  • Jordan Spieth – A past champion who still flashes brilliance, but hasn’t consistently reached the same peak level as others in this group.
  • Akshay Bhatia – A rising left-hander who already has one of the best wins this year (Arnold Palmer Invitational) and has now built up some Augusta experience. Lefties have historically had some success here (Mickelson, Watson, and Weir with six of the last 25 wins).
  • Robert MacIntyre – Another lefty with a strong recent showing at THE PLAYERS and upside in big events, as shown by his runner-up finish at the U.S. Open last year.
  • Chris Gotterup – The lone Masters rookie on this list. History is against him, but with multiple wins over the past year, including two already in 2026, he’s at least worth watching.

Strokes Gained: Last 5 Masters Tournaments

Here is a table showing some of the data we reviewed in making this list. It includes the average Strokes Gained from the last 5 Masters (with total rounds played over that span in parentheses) as well as the percentage of those rounds that had a positive Strokes Gained, those that were at least 2.5 Strokes Gained or better, and those at least 5.0 Strokes Gained or better, along with the best result of 2026.