2025 Masters Pool Picks: Favorites, Sleepers & Value Plays

Value picks and data-driven strategies to give you an edge in tiers-based pools for the 2025 Masters Tournament.

Welcome to our Masters Pool Picks Strategy article for 2025. In this article, we will update with news and info to consider when making your Masters picks for your golf majors pools and other contests.

As we add new content throughout Masters week, we will link it in this section.

• Pick Strategies for Your Masters Pick X Entries – Posted Wednesday, April 9
• Free Subscriber Contest at The SZN – Posted Wednesday, April 9
• Portfolio Advice and Building Your Masters Entries – Posted Wednesday, April 9
• Product Feature: Round-by-Round Results – Posted Tuesday, April 8
• Potential Masters Value Picks – Posted Tuesday, April 8
• Top 15 Favorites at 2025 Masters – Posted Monday, April 7
• Best Masters Performers (Last 4 Years) – Posted Friday, April 4
• Masters Pool Strategy Articles – Posted Friday, April 4

Strategies for Masters Pick X Pools

This section is for you if you play in a pool where you can pick golfers but are not restricted by putting them into tiers. This could include Majors pools, nominally designated as “One and Done” pools, which allow you to pick 3-5 (or more) golfers in each major.

We also have a strategy article for these types of pools, which you should review if you are in one. We are going to build on that by discussing some specific golfers for the 2025 Masters.

For Masters-Only Pools or When Golfers Can Be Reused

If you are making picks just for the Masters, or your picks in this tournament do not impact how you can pick in the future, then this section is for your pool.

Follow the Rule of 24

The advice in our strategy article was to focus on the “Rule of 24” when making your picks. What we mean by that is to generally limit yourself to picks from among the Top 24 golfers in the field.

That means we will mostly limit picks from among the golfers in the 2025 Masters who have win odds of +5000 or better. If you look at the Data Grid with all the golfers, we will consider golfers like Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Smith, and Will Zalatoris to represent the outer bounds of the golfers.

If you have to pick three golfers, you will choose one out of every eight golfers. If you have to pick five golfers, it will be roughly one out of every five golfers from among the Top 25.

Match Picks to Pool Size

Let pool size and payout structure dictate how unique you get and whether your picks are skewed toward the top contenders or mix in more of the guys in the 15-24 range in tournament odds.

Small Pools: If you are in a small pool, it’s fine to be a little heavier on picking from among the Top 12. If you are picking five golfers and are in a pool with only 50 entries, it is perfectly reasonable to have 3-4 of the Top 12 guys in odds on your entry.

Large Pools: If you are instead in a pool with 5,000 entries and only the top 1-2% cash, you may want to have more like 2-3 of the top 12 and have the rest of your picks be at lower popularity, from the next tier.

Which Golfers Will Be Relative Fades or Values?

Among the Top 12, in a pool where you can reuse golfers, Bryson DeChambeau looks to have higher popularity relative to his odds. Jon Rahm, meanwhile, is showing up as a relative value in the top tier.

When to Play Scheffler and McIlroy?

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy will be highly popular. It may seem counterintuitive, but you should be more likely to play them at that high popularity the more picks you have to make.

Think of it this way:

• In a pool where you have to come up with eight picks, your 8th-best pick must be better than Scheffler to reject using him.
• He doesn’t need to win or finish at the top to appear on all the winning entries.
• If he finishes 12th, he is still likely to be among the winning entries, including the Masters winner and some other top finishers.

When to Fade Scheffler and McIlroy?

If your pool instead requires three picks, it’s easier to justify avoiding Scheffler or McIlroy. You are more likely to be able to hit a winning entry if they mildly disappoint, and you hit the key trio of picks without them.

Value Picks in Lower Tiers

Golfers like Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, and Brooks Koepka will likely be more popular in the next tier. You can pick others like Patrick Cantlay, Robert MacIntyre, Min Woo Lee, Will Zalatoris, Tyrell Hatton, and Corey Conners with similar odds at a popularity discount.

If You Cannot Reuse Golfers in Other Majors (Like a One and Done)

If you are playing in this type of pool but can use a golfer only once, that can impact the popularity and value plays.

If Your Pool Started With The Players Championship

If your pool started with the Players Championship, Scheffler and Morikawa were likely the most popular picks. Meanwhile, McIlroy probably showed up on many of the leading entries as the tournament winner (and those entries now cannot pick him for The Masters). So, those three become a little better values to consider now. On the other hand, you could continue to hold any of the three and play only one of them to see their availability dwindle even further.

If Your Pool Starts With The Masters

If your pool is starting fresh with the Masters, we anticipate that Scheffler and McIlroy will be very popular. DeChambeau is likely to be less popular as entries save him for the two events where he finished highly last year, the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.

Xander Schauffele will likely be even less popular in these pool types as more people opt to save him until his form improves. You could also see the guys who project relatively better here (Cam Smith, Ludvig Aberg, Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, and Will Zalatoris) get a slight boost in popularity in these types of pools.

We would not go crazy with adjustments yet if your pool is starting now. Focus on dividing out your picks. If you have three picks to make, for example, make one pick from among the four best golfers, make another from the next five or six, and then the final one from somewhere inside the top 24. Then, let the size of your pool determine how unique your final pick needs to be.

Free Masters Contest for Subscribers ($500 in Prizes)

If you are an active PoolGenius/TeamRankings/BetIQ subscriber to any of our products, you can still enter the free subscriber contest hosted at The SZN. We will give a total of $500 in Amazon Gift Cards to the top three finishers.

It is a 25-question Masters Props contest with various questions, such as:

• What nation or region will the winner come from?

• What will the winning score range be?

• Will any of the top five players entering Amen Corner on Sunday (holes 11–13) make a double bogey or worse?

So, jump in and put your Masters predictions to the test for a chance to win a prize. Click here to enter!

Portfolio Advice and Building Your Masters Entries

We have specific tier-by-tier pick recommendation options in our Golf Majors & Masters Picks product, based on how conservative or contrarian you want to be.

We currently list four pick set options in the product:

• Conservative: The best relative win odds within each tier
• Balanced: A blend of tier win odds and popularity, based on pool size and reflecting the top grades overall
• Aggressive: Similar to “Balanced” but with more emphasis on lower popularity
• Contrarian: The best win odds among the golfers who have below-average projected tier pick popularity

You can combine these categories to build entries as well. For example, building around some of the bigger favorites into your pool is a solid strategy, as long as you balance it.

For an analogy to another pool type, imagine making a popular NCAA tournament champion pick with relatively high win odds in a March Madness pool but adding in some unpopular value plays to the Final Four to differentiate your entry from the crowd.

So you could build an entry that balances some of the favorites in the “Conservative” pick set with some of the “Contrarian” or “Aggressive” picks in other tiers to create your unique entry. Our grades are designed to reflect pool size and payout structure, so you will naturally see some more contrarian/less popular plays rise in the largest pool sizes. You can still use these categories to build out entries.

Building Portfolios For Multiple Entries

If you play multiple entries, you can build them with differentiated key picks and shared picks in other tiers.

For instance, you could build multiple entries, including 1-2 of the “Conservative” picks with those from the other pick sets, and alternate which tier you use the more conservative favorites from.

If you’re playing multiple entries in a pool, we suggest being a little more diverse in your final tier, especially if it includes the entire rest of the field.

While you don’t need to get too crazy in how far down the list you go, you also don’t want to be heavily concentrated on one of the longer shots that could sink several of your entries with a bad performance.

Specific Tiers and Builds for the 2025 Masters

While every contest could have a slightly different tier structure, most are similar, with the biggest contenders in the top tier and then working down.

So, we thought we would discuss some potential strategies for building out tiers. For this exercise, we will use Splash Sports’ 8-tier structure for some of their contests, but a lot of the discussion should still apply to slightly different golfer tiers and total number of tiers.

Tier 1

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are the most popular picks, but for good reason. Scheffler has been consistently in contention at Augusta and has rarely put up a bad round. His odds of making the cut are over 90%. So, building out entries where you look for more uniqueness and different combinations elsewhere is certainly reasonable.

Jon Rahm is the best value play right now, providing below-average popularity while tied for the third-best odds of the group. You could play a heavier amount of Rahm and build more conservative tier picks elsewhere at smaller sizes. At larger pool sizes, Rahm’s value proposition is really good and allows versatility in building entries.

If you are going to go with one of the less popular options in Tier 1 (like Patrick Cantlay/Justin Thomas/Xander Schauffele), you probably do not need to get too crazy with other tiers at small sizes. You are building a big bet on those players providing high leverage and being very low-owned.

Tiers 2 and 3

These two tiers are more balanced in terms of both win odds and pick popularity. In smaller pools, it’s usually best to focus on golfers with the strongest odds to finish near the top, even if they’re more popular. In larger pools, however, you’ll benefit more by leaning into less popular options with similar upside, giving your entry more differentiation.

Tiers 4 and 5

These tiers are extremely flat in terms of win odds, so popularity can be more of a driver here. These are likely to be some pivotal tiers.

It includes some guys making their Masters debuts (Maverick McNealy, Taylor Pendrith, Aaron Rai, and Thomas Detry) and some Masters veterans like Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose, and Adam Scott.

Most of these guys have “make the cut” odds in the 60%-70% range, so there are likely to be a couple of groups that produce quite the range of outcomes, from missed cut penalties to top-10 finishes this year. So, hitting on those better outcomes could be key.

You could either take a concentrated approach (hoping you hit the couple of golfers that perform relatively best from these tiers) or more of a balanced approach, where you take concentrated bets on key golfers in the earlier tiers, and then try to pair them with some combos here, hoping a couple end up working out well for your portfolio.

Tier 6 and Beyond

Once you get to Tier 6 or higher (for pools with more tiers), these golfers’ odds of making the cut are under 60% (and in some cases well under 50%).

From a game theory perspective, you probably want to go with your best odds, with a big caveat. Avoiding the most popular picks here can have outsized value. For example:

• We project Denny McCarthy’s popularity to be 20% and J.T. Poston’s popularity to be 19% in Tiers 6 and 7 at Splash.
• While they are among the odds leaders in their respective tiers, the differences are not significant to many other options.
• Avoiding the most popular picks can set your entry up to benefit greatly if those popular picks, who have a high “missed cut” risk, flounder, and you can hit on a different golfer in the same tier.

We would not go too far down the odds list in the search for complete uniqueness, but avoiding a couple of the most popular plays typically makes sense in this range.

Product Feature: Round-By-Round Results

We have just updated our Golf Majors & Masters Picks product to provide a second, more detailed view of the Data Grid after you set up your pool and tiers.

Now, you can see detailed Round-by-Round Strokes Gained data for all golfers for every round played at the Masters over the last six tournaments (2019 to 2024).

You can quickly see which golfers have the most rounds above a certain threshold in Strokes Gained, see how golfers compare in their recent rounds in the same tier, and much more.

Potential Masters Value Picks

Here are some potential Masters value picks that are showing up in early pick data. These are based on reviewing some of the more popular tier defaults for Masters pools, so depending on your pool’s tier structure and size, the golfers below may or may not show up as highly graded picks for your specific pool.

For example, if a golfer has the lowest win odds within a tier, he is not likely to be graded highly, even if he’s an unpopular pick. But if you throw that same golfer into a different tier, low pick popularity coupled with better odds of being the top performer in that new tier could make him a great pick.

For the most specific advice, set up your pool at Golf Majors & Masters Picks. With that caveat, here are some intriguing potential value picks:

1. Jon Rahm

There are certainly arguments for sticking with Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy with your top-tier pick. But if you are looking to diversify off those names based on your pool size or prize structure, Jon Rahm looks like a great risk/reward play.

He is tied for third in win odds out of the top group but has below-average popularity. While over half of entries are picking either Scheffler or McIlroy, Rahm’s pick rate could be in the single digits.

Yes, he had a poor showing at Augusta last year. We think that could be partially written off as handling his champion return duties and pressure, as well as being the first event that he played after leaving for the LIV Tour a few months prior. His overall history at Augusta has been pretty strong, as the 2023 champion and with five top-10 finishes in the previous six Masters before last season’s disappointment.

2. Min Woo Lee

The young Australian won at the Texas Children’s Open two weeks ago and has performed solidly at Augusta in three starts. He is often in the second or third tier, so he is with enough big names that his popularity is held down. In larger pools, he might be worth a look to see if he can continue that recent form. In four weekend rounds at Augusta, he has averaged +3.0 strokes gained. He just needs to get off to a stronger start in his fourth try at the Masters (no rounds under par on Thursday/Friday so far).

3. Akshay Bhatia 

Bhatia missed the cut at last week’s Valero Texas Open (a year after he won the event to qualify for his first Masters). That could be enough to scare some away from picking him this week, providing some relative value. The 23-year-old Bhatia finished 35th in his debut at Augusta last year, a solid finish for his first time at the course.

Bhatia hits a classic left-handed fade, and we have seen in recent years that some lefties (notably past champions Phil Mickelson, Mike Weir, and Bubba Watson) have had considerable success at Augusta National. According to our John Abbey, the left-handed golfers who can hit a power fade can have a significant advantage on holes 2, 5, 13, and 15, which include three of the four Par 5s. Last year, Bhatia shot -2 on those four holes while being +8 on all other holes. If he can more consistently birdie those holes (and improve his overall performance on the rest of the course in his second try), Bhatia could surprise out of the middle tiers in most pools.

Masters Odds: Top 15 Favorites

We have the Masters betting odds and tournament win percentages now displayed in our Data Grid.

Here are the top 15 (and ties) in betting odds to win the 2025 Masters:

• Scottie Scheffler +450
• Rory McIlroy +550
• Collin Morikawa +1200
• Jon Rahm +1200
• Bryson DeChambeau +1400
• Ludvig Aberg +1600
• Xander Schauffele +2000
• Justin Thomas +2000
• Brooks Koepka +2500
• Patrick Cantlay +2800
• Tommy Fleetwood +2800
• Shane Lowry +2800
• Hideki Matsuyama +2800
• Joaquin Niemann +2800
• Viktor Hovland +3300
• Min Woo Lee +3300
• Robert MacIntyre +3300
• Jordan Spieth +3300

If you are one of our Majors & Masters subscribers, you’ll see the odds of each golfer winning their respective tier—based on the tiers you’ve set up.

Masters Picks: Sifting Through the Favorites

The Masters favorites bring a mix of strong course history, elite talent, and recent form. Here are some notes and additional context to that list:

• Rory McIlroy leads the conversation after winning The Players Championship just a few weeks ago. He finished 2nd at Augusta in 2022, though his last two trips resulted in more modest finishes: 22nd in 2023 and 59th last year.
• Scottie Scheffler, the betting favorite, has two Masters titles in the past three years and quietly tied for 2nd at the Houston Open, suggesting he’s rounding into form at the right time.
• Jon Rahm, the 2023 champion, remains a threat despite finishing 45th in his title defense last year.
• Xander Schauffele has quietly been one of the most consistent players at Augusta, with three top-10 finishes in his last four appearances.
• Ludvig Aberg, after a stunning runner-up debut last year, could be primed to contend again as one of the most intriguing breakout candidates in the field.

Best Golfers at The Masters: Last Four Years

Last year, Ludvig Aberg had one of the best debuts at Augusta in quite a while, finishing 2nd behind Scottie Scheffler. (The last time a Masters rookie won was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.)

We have the Data Grid now available once you set up your Masters pool under the “My Entries” link. The Data Grid will not display betting odds information until next week, and we will not have the pick popularity projections until we get those odds and start to get some data as pools get going in earnest at the start of next week.

But as of now, you can see the course history information and the entire Masters field that has qualified to date, as well as where we rank them.

Masters: Strokes Gained Leaders (Last 4 Years)

If we limit it to golfers who have played at least twice in the last four years at Augusta, here are the leaders in Strokes Gained over that span. It’s worth noting that Ludvig Aberg posted an impressive +4.4 Strokes Gained in his Masters debut last year—ranking highest among all players—but doesn’t appear on this list due to having only one start:

• Scottie Scheffler: +3.4 (2022 and 2024 Champion)
• Will Zalatoris: +3.3 (Three top 10 finishes, including 2nd in 2021)
• Jon Rahm: +2.6 (2023 Champion)
• Xander Schauffele: +2.5 (Three top 10 finishes)
• Collin Morikawa: +2.4 (Three straight top 10 finishes, 3rd last year)
• Cameron Smith: +2.3 (Three top 10 finishes)
• Chris Kirk: +2.2 (16th and 23rd last two years)
• Patrick Reed: +2.1 (two top 10 finishes and 12th last year)
• Hideki Matsuyama: +2.1 (2021 Champion)
• Robert MacIntyre: +2.0 (has not played last two but was 12th in 2021)

Scheffler, Rahm, Schauffele, Morikawa, and Matsuyama are near the top of our rankings and will be among the leaders in betting odds to win in 2025.

Smith and Reed both play on the LIV Tour and have a history of success at Augusta. Smith has a top-10 finish in five of his last seven starts, while Reed was the 2018 winner of the Green Jacket.

Robert MacIntyre has been playing well so far in 2025 (and going back to his wins at both the Canadian Open and Scottish Open last summer) and is up to No. 17 in our golfer rankings.

Will Zalatoris has been solid but not spectacular so far in 2025, with seven made cuts in seven starts but no top-10 finishes. However, he has a history of playing well at Augusta, posting three top-10 finishes in his only three starts (he withdrew prior to the 2023 Masters due to injury).

Masters Pool Strategy Articles Available

We have written a Majors pool strategy article on how to think about tier-based Majors pools, which require picking golfers from different groupings. If you haven’t read it, you should review it, as some concepts will be discussed here.

We also have an article on strategies to consider when playing in “Pick X” type pools, where you do not have to select from within tiers, and the entire field is available, but you pick a pre-set number of total golfers, like Pick 5 or Pick 8 for the Masters.

These articles complement the customized pick advice and data in our Golf Majors & Masters Picks product, which allows you to get advice after organizing specific golfers into tiers in your pool.

Every pool could have different variations of value picks, depending on which golfers are grouped in tiers. We cannot cover every possibility in an article, but we hope to highlight some key strategies (and players, as we get into Masters week).