Survivor Pool Strategy Guide: How to Win NFL Survivor Pools

Our strategy guide for winning NFL survivor pools walks you through key topics and insights that maximize your edge.

Josh Allen and Survivor

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills will try to go 2 for 2 against New York teams (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome to our Survivor Pool Strategy Guide, which provides data-driven advice on how to improve your chances of winning NFL survivor pools (also known as knockout pools and eliminator pools).

We have also published an e-book on survivor strategy that you can download. It provides an in-depth analysis of similar topics as the Survivor Pool Strategy Guide.

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How We Help People Win NFL Survivor Pools

Before we get to the core of our analysis, here’s our brief resume. Since 2017, our subscribers have reported winning NFL survivor pools 2.8 times as often as expected, given the size of their pools.

In addition, although winning a survivor pool is something that many players rarely experience:

  • 13.2% of our subscribers won a pool in 2023
  • 42.8% of our subscribers won a pool in 2022
  • 30.1% of our subscribers won a pool in 2021
  • 25.0% of our subscribers won a pool in 2020
  • 32.6% of our subscribers won a pool in 2019
  • 20.7% of our subscribers won a pool in 2018
  • 40.9% of our subscribers won a pool in 2017

Our subscribers use our NFL Survivor Pool Picks product, which will be available starting August 1st, to get this edge. It’s the only product that customizes picks for survivor pools based on important strategy factors like your pool’s size and rules. It also supports a variety of survivor pool rule variations, including strikes, buy-backs, byes, multiple pick weeks, and season wins tiebreakers.

The Key Elements Of Survivor Pool Strategy

Our NFL Survivor pool strategy guide has been built on over a decade of research, including simulating millions of pools with various combinations of sizes and rules.

It is rare to find a service willing to collect feedback on how successful its subscribers have been using its pick recommendations. But we understand the importance of tracking the performance of our subscribers since they ultimately make up our success story, as they test our picks in tens of thousands of real-world survivor contests.

We’ve distilled much of that success into a series of free learning articles that explain what it takes to maximize your edge in NFL survivor pools. These articles include the foundational strategies that increase your odds of winning a pool and the common traps to avoid when making your picks.

Whether you choose to enlist our help or not this upcoming season, our NFL Survivor pool strategy guide is here to help you gain an edge.

Free Survivor Strategy Articles

Setting Realistic Expectations For Winning NFL Survivor Pools

In the first article, about setting expectations, we discuss some reasons to play survivor pools. We also delve into some of the challenges and the nature of survivor pools, which include having a low probability of winning and the role of luck. We also discuss the potential to win a good amount in certain pools if successful.

Want To Win Your NFL Survivor Pool? Don’t Just Try To Survive

You may think it’s evident that the goal is to win the pool and to do so, you must survive each week. However, plenty of survivor players make decisions that run counter to successfully reaching that goal. For example, trying to survive the first month by being risk-averse may not align with the best strategy to ultimately win the pool. We discuss the mentality you need to maximize your chances in survivor pools.

The Holy Trinity of Survivor Pick Strategy Data

This article discusses the three strategic considerations for developing your picks: win odds, pick popularity, and future value.

Expected Value: What It Is & Why It Matters For Survivor Pool Picks

In our Expected Value article, we explore the process of determining the expected value for each team each week. We start with simple examples to illustrate expected value and then build on that with more examples of how expected value works. We also discuss the impact your own pick decision can have on expected value and conclude by going through an actual example from a past season.

Future Value: What It Is & Why It Matters For Survivor Pool Picks

Our Future Value article explains why you should always keep an eye on future weeks in Survivor. We discuss the predictability of an NFL season and how future value is determined. We also discuss how future value depends on many factors, including pool size and the specific rules of each pool.

Balancing Expected Value And Future Value When Making NFL Survivor Picks

Ideally, you want to use teams with the highest chances of winning but are not popular (and thus have high expected value). But you also want to use teams with no future value and save teams with high future value. What happens when some of those considerations conflict? We go through examples of how we have handled combining expected and future value.

Why The Size Of Your NFL Survivor Pool Should Influence Your Picks

Size matters in survivor pools. We discuss the various ways that size can impact your survivor strategy, including your chances of winning, the amount of risk you should be willing to take, and how long the contest could last.

How The Rules Of NFL Survivor Pools Affect Optimal Pick Strategy

In this article, we discuss various rule variations that we handle for survivor pools. After giving an overview of different types of rules, such as strikes, byes, or multiple picks, we also provide some strategy tips for handling each type of pool.

Playing Multiple Entries In NFL Survivor Pools: Implications & Strategy

We always encourage subscribers to play more entries if they can do so. Having more than one entry allows for diversification and the ability to use a portfolio strategy. We go through some strategy considerations for how you want to divide up multiple entries.

NFL Survivor Pool Myths

In addition to our general strategy articles, we have a series debunking some popular survivor strategy myths — often heard popular “wisdom” that will do you more harm than good.

Survivor Pool Myth #1: Never Pick Division Rivalry Games

Our myth series starts with a common one you will hear in survivor circles: avoid division rivalry games because they are more unpredictable. The data, though, does not support that position.

Survivor Pool Myth #2: Never Pick Road Teams / Away Teams

Another popular survivor myth is that you should avoid picking teams playing on the road. But the betting market info accounts for home-field advantage, and this one does not hold up if you go by win odds.

Survivor Pool Myth #3: Just Survive The Early Season, Then Figure It Out

Plenty of survivor advice will tell you to get through the early part of the season. However, even if you pick the “safest” teams (like many entries do), surviving the first month is still challenging, and avoiding the crowd can often be profitable.

Survivor Pool Myth #4: I Have to Pick This Team This Week!

We hear from plenty of readers who feel they must pick a particular team because it is the only remaining week to use them. And our answer is, well, don’t use them if they are not the best value pick. You should never lock into feeling you have to pick a specific team if the value is not there.

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