NFL Playoff Survivor Picks & Advice for Every Round (2026)
NFL Survivor picks, strategy, and analysis for 2025-26 playoffs, covering all aspects from the Wild Card round through the Super Bowl.
by Jason Lisk - Jan 13, 2026
(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)
Welcome to the PoolGenius Survivor Pool Strategy Article for the 2025-26 NFL playoffs. This is a premium article for subscribers with access to our NFL Survivor Picks product.
One quick heads-up before you dive in: NFL playoff survivor pools are a different beast. Because the playoff format is more complex than picking one team over a fixed regular season schedule, our NFL Survivor Picks product doesn’t generate customized, pool-specific pick recommendations for the playoffs the way it does during the regular season.
Instead, this article is your guide.
We’ll break down the best data-driven strategy from the Wild Card Round all the way through the Super Bowl, and we’ll keep it fresh with multiple updates each week. If there’s news that could swing NFL playoff survivor pick strategy, we’ll cover that here too.
Check back each round for our latest recommendations.
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Divisional Round Survivor Content
- Tue, Jan. 13: Divisional Round Matchups and Spreads
- Tue, Jan. 13: Round Advancement Odds
- Wed, Jan. 14: Pick Popularity and EV
- Wed, Jan. 14: Full Path Survival Odds
- Wed, Jan. 14: Strategy Where You Can’t Re-Use Teams
- Thu, Jan. 15: Strategy Where You Can Re-Use Teams
Tuesday 1/13
2026 Divisional Round Matchups and Spreads
Here are the Divisional Round matchups, listed in descending order of spread and our projected win odds:
- Seattle (-7.5) vs. San Francisco, 77% win odds
- LA Rams (-3.5) at Chicago, 64% win odds
- New England (-3.5) vs. Houston, 63% win odds
- Buffalo (-1) at Denver, 50% win odds
We will update with pick popularity data and pick analysis on Wednesday.
Tuesday 1/13
NFL Playoffs Round-By-Round Advancement Odds
Here are our advancement odds for each round for the eight remaining playoff teams.
| Team | Conf | Seed | Conf Champ | Super Bowl | Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | AFC | 1 | 50% | 24% | 10% |
| New England | AFC | 2 | 61% | 29% | 13% |
| Houston | AFC | 5 | 39% | 21% | 9% |
| Buffalo | AFC | 6 | 50% | 26% | 12% |
| Seattle | NFC | 1 | 74% | 46% | 27% |
| Chicago | NFC | 2 | 36% | 11% | 5% |
| LA Rams | NFC | 5 | 64% | 33% | 21% |
| San Francisco | NFC | 6 | 26% | 10% | 4% |
Wednesday 1/14
Divisional Round Pick Popularity and EV
Coming Soon.
Wednesday 1/14
Full-Path Survival Odds Entering Divisional Round
Coming Soon.
Wednesday 1/14
Survivor Strategy In Pools Where You Can’t Re-Use Teams
Coming Soon.
Thursday 1/15
Survivor Strategy In Pools Where You Can Re-Use Teams
Coming Soon.
NFL Survivor Strategy: Wild Card Round
Here is the planned schedule for this week, and we will add a hyperlink to the content once it is published.
- Mon, Jan. 5: Wild Card Spreads
- Mon, Jan. 5: Strategy Overview
- Wed, Jan. 7: Advancement Odds
- Wed, Jan. 7: Pick Popularity and EV
- Thu, Jan. 8: Playoff Paths Analysis
- Thu, Jan. 8: **2026 PLAYOFF STRATEGY AND RECS**
- Fri, Jan. 9: **2026 SPLASH SURVIVOR POOL STRATEGY**
- Fri, Jan. 9: If You Can Pick Teams Again in Each Round
- Fri, Jan. 9: NFL Playoff Survivor Video
Friday 1/9
NFL Playoff Survivor Video
Jason Lisk runs through NFL Playoff Survivor Picks, certain paths you can take, strategy tips, and how to approach the slate on Splash Sports.
Be sure to SUBSCRIBE to the PoolGenius YouTube Channel for more data-driven strategies for football, basketball, and golf pools.
Monday 1/5
2026 Wild Card Round Matchups and Spreads
Here are the matchups, listed in descending order of spread and our projected win odds:
| Conference | Matchup | Spread | Win odds | Day | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFC | No. 5 Los Angeles Rams at No. 4 Carolina Panthers | Rams -10.5 | 84% | Saturday | 4:30 p.m. |
| NFC | No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles vs. No. 6 San Francisco 49ers | Eagles -6 | 69% | Sunday | 4:30 p.m. |
| AFC | No. 2 New England Patriots vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers | Patriots -3.5 | 63% | Sunday | 8:00 p.m. |
| AFC | No. 5 Houston Texans at No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers | Texans -3 | 57% | Monday | 8:00 p.m. |
| AFC | No. 6 Buffalo Bills at No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars | Jags PK | 52% | Sunday | 1:00 p.m. |
| NFC | No. 2 Chicago Bears vs. No. 7 Green Bay | Packers -1.5 | 53% | Saturday | 8:00 p.m. |
Last updated: Saturday, Jan. 10 at 10 am ET
We’ll start getting those popularity numbers and update by Wednesday, and also have the round-by-round survival odds posted by that afternoon, so check back then.
Monday 1/5
NFL Survivor Pool Playoff Strategy Overview
We have a NFL Survivor Pool Playoffs Strategy article that goes into more detail on some of the concepts we apply to our playoff advice.
Among the topics we cover there:
- How NFL Playoffs Survivor Pools Differ From the Regular Season
- Different Types of NFL Playoffs Survivor Pools
- The Importance of NFL Playoffs Survivor Paths
- The Impact of the Expanded NFL Playoff Format
- Setting Expectations for NFL Playoffs Survivor Pools
Check that out if you want some understanding of why we give the advice we do for this year’s playoffs.
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