Circa Survivor Week 7 Breakdown (2024)

We breakdown Week 7 of Circa Survivor, focusing on pick popularity, future value and pick strategy.

Matthew Stafford and Rams will try to get their 2nd win for the survivor players (Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

Survivor contests finally had a week without big losses, and the same was true in Circa Survivor. Of the 221 entries last week, 216 advanced to Week 7, with losses on Tennessee (4) and Jacksonville (1).

We highlighted five options, led by Green Bay and Atlanta, followed by Houston. The Circa crowd went heavy on Philadelphia (50%). Green Bay ended up being the second-most popular Circa pick at 14%.

Here’s what you will see in the Week 7 article:

Circa Survivor Week 7 Projected Popularity
Projected Contest Elimination Rates by Week
Circa Survivor Future Value Rankings (subscriber-only content)
Week 7 Pick Strategy Thoughts (subscriber-only content)

Circa Survivor Week 7 Estimated Popularity

Last week, the popularity of Philadelphia pushing 50% surprised us, as that came in well above the public pick rate nationally, and there were several other reasonable options that used less future value.

We were directionally right that Houston and Atlanta would be less popular, and Baltimore and Green Bay would be more popular than public pick data.

We continue to see that the higher EV plays based on public pick data tend to be more popular in Circa, while those with a worse relative EV are picked at a lower rate, sometimes making them a good value, specifically in the Circa contest. Atlanta was such an example last week.

Now to the estimates for pick popularity this week:

Team	Opponent	Circa Projected	Public	EV at Projected
WAS	CAR	40%	33%	0.95
BUF	TEN	23%	31%	1.08
LAR	LV	16%	12%	1.02
CIN	CLE	8%	8%	1.00
JAC	NE	9%	5%	0.99
PHI	NYG	2%	3%	0.92
IND	MIA	1%	2%	0.90
DEN	NO	1%	1%	0.87
BAL	TB	0%	1%	0.99
ATL	SEA	1%	1%	0.91

Subscribers can see our pick analysis for the Week 7 options below.

Projected Contest Eliminations by Week

After Week 3, and the high eliminations early in Circa Survivor, we started projecting the number of entries to be alive at various milestones. The first was “end of Week 6,” and our weekly projections were 240.5, 220.5, and 160.5 (after the big Seattle and San Francisco losses in Week 5). As it turns out, 216 made it, so close to our middle projection after Week 4.

Here is our analysis for future milestones. This is based on our review of the most common picks and upcoming potential paths, as well as based on historical weekly elimination rates.

Here are the most commonly used teams in Circa Survivor, and what percentage of entries still have them available:

New York Jets: 9%
Houston: 30%
San Francisco: 31%
Seattle: 37%
Philadelphia: 48%
Chicago: 62%
LA Chargers: 71%
Green Bay: 72%

We used our Optimal Path and Season Planner tools to see survival rate estimates for various potential paths for entries that had used all or some of those teams. Those estimates also accounted for the two extra holiday picks. (Our Optimal Survival Path for an entry that has already picked “SEA-HOU-NYJ-SF-CHI-PHI” right now would be 1.5% to make it through Week 18 alive, by the way.)

Here are our projections entering Week 7:

Contest Week	Current Projected Entries, Over/Under	Last Week's Projection, Over/Under
Week 8	120.5	89.5
Week 10	62.5	48.5
Week 12	35.5	26.5
Week 14	12.5	9.5
Week 16	6.5	4.5
Week 18	1.5	0.5

The odds of this contest going all the way through Week 18 bounced back up after last week’s high advancement rate. We now project about 35.5 entries to make it to the Thanksgiving pick week.

Circa Survivor Future Value Rankings

Now, let’s look at the Future Value estimates for Circa Survivor Week 8 and beyond. This Future Value estimate is specific to the Circa contest and looks at how many weeks each team is a survivor option and how likely they are to rank highly in relative win odds for that week.

We have availability percentages in the contest for each team, and put asterisks on teams that appear on a Thanksgiving or Christmas game schedule.