Circa Survivor Week 12 Breakdown (2024)

We dive into Week 12 of the 2024 Circa Survivor contest, focusing on pick popularity, future value and pick strategy.

Jayden Daniels and the Commanders get Dallas next (Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

The popular picks in Circa all won last week, and only six entries were eliminated. The 49ers (4) and Browns (2) were the losses that eliminated entries. We are now just under 100 entries, with 99 still remaining.

Important Note: Future Circa Schedule

We will get to our Week 12 content below, but first, we wanted to lay out the plan going forward. Next week is the big double-pick week in the Circa contest, with picks on both Thanksgiving and then the weekend required. The pick deadline for the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games is by 10 pm Las Vegas time on Wednesday, November 27th.

Our plan is to have the article next week published by 10 am on Wednesday, and it will include analysis for both sets of picks in Week 13.

With just under 100 entries remaining as we enter this gauntlet, our assumption is that it will likely be fewer than half that number that get out of the next two weeks.

We will not be posting weekly breakdowns after that point, with so few expected entries left and only six picks remaining. But we will run a final article by Thursday, December 5th. In it, we will lay out a final “future value” outlook, and some of the Optimal Path options for the most common teams used, and a look at the remaining weeks. If any subscribers are among the final entries left after that point, you can also reach out to us privately at either support@teamrankings.com or jason@teamrankings.com with any strategy questions.

Here’s what you will see in the Week 12 article:

• Circa Survivor Week 12 Projected Popularity
• Projected Contest Eliminations by Week
• Week 11 Future Value Rankings (subscriber-only content)
• Optimal Path and Entry Values (subscriber-only content)
• Week 11 Pick Strategy Thoughts (subscriber-only content)

Circa Survivor Week 12 Estimated Popularity

Last week, Detroit and Miami led the way in popularity, with Packers, Vikings, Rams, and Texans also being picked by some advancing entries.

Here are the estimates for pick popularity this week:

• We anticipate the Washington Commanders will be far more popular in Circa, because of Kansas City’s holiday importance, and Houston’s low availability.
• We also project Miami to have more popularity in Circa for the same reasons.

Subscribers can see our pick analysis for the Week 12 options below.

Projected Contest Eliminations by Week

We use our Optimal Path and Season Planner tools to see survival rate estimates for various potential paths for entries that had used all or some of those teams. Those estimates also accounted for the two extra holiday picks. We also use historical data on weekly elimination rates, and combine those to make estimates for how many entries could be alive at various milestones.

(Our Optimal Survival Path for an entry that has already picked the most common surviving pick each week of “SEA-HOU-NYJ-SF-CHI-PHI-LAR-DEN-CIN-LAC-DET” right now would be 6.8% to make it through Week 18 alive, by the way.)

Here are our projections entering Week 12:

With another high survival rate last week, the estimates move up a bit, and now we project 5.5 entries as the Over/Under to make it to the end. We project about 30 entries to make it out of the Thanksgiving week two-pick stretch.

Circa Survivor Future Value Rankings

Now, let’s look at the Future Value estimates for Circa Survivor Week 13 and beyond. This Future Value estimate is specific to the Circa contest and looks at how many weeks each team is a survivor option and how likely they are to rank highly in relative win odds for that week.

We have availability percentages in the contest for each team, and put asterisks on teams that appear on a Thanksgiving or Christmas game schedule.