Circa Survivor Rest of Year Outlook (2024)

The final Circa Survivor article for 2024 looks at the remaining teams and which teams are likely to be in consideration as picks.

The Ravens and Eagles will be important down the stretch in Circa Survivor (Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

The Thanksgiving week came and went, and despite the potential for some big eliminations, 52 of the 54 entries made it through the two-pick stretch. Only two entries that picked the Cincinnati Bengals were eliminated.

This is our final Circa article for the 2024 season. With Circa contest numbers getting lower, and the pick options getting more limited, we are going to cover the last five weeks together, by summarizing the options across those weeks.

The final article is subscriber-only for most of the content. Here’s what you will see:

• Rest of Circa Contest Survival Rate Outlook
• Future Value Rankings (subscriber-only content)
• Projected Most Popular Picks by Week (subscriber-only content)
• Weekly Outlooks, Week 14 to 18 (subscriber-only content)

Rest of 2024 Circa Contest Survival Rate Outlook

After a Thanksgiving Week that appeared risky, but resulted in nearly everyone getting through, the odds of needing to get all the way through Week 18 to win the Circa contest rose.

Entering last week, we estimated an Over/Under of 13.5 entries to reach Christmas week, and an Over/Under of 3.5 entries to get through Week 18.

Now, with 52 entries still alive with five weeks and six picks remaining, we project an Over/Under of 22.5 entries to reach Christmas week, and an Over/Under of 5.5 entries splitting the prize as winners. There are still some opportunities that will come up, where the Circa pool could be concentrated on a team, and a loss would wipe out the pool. We’ll cover some of those projected popular picks below.

Circa Survivor Future Value Rankings

Here are our Future Value estimates for Circa Survivor Week 15 through the end of the contest. This Future Value estimate is specific to the Circa contest and looks at how many weeks each team is a survivor option and how likely they are to rank highly in relative win odds for that week.

We have availability percentages in the contest for each team, and put asterisks on teams that appear on a Thanksgiving or Christmas game schedule.