Why You Should Embrace Ambiguous Running Back Duos in Best Ball

We have several situations where two running backs on the same team are being drafted near each other, and they provide a value opportunity.

The 2024 Best Ball landscape presents a really good buying opportunity for a certain class of running backs, and it is one that has often proved undervalued in the past. We are talking about what we will term “ambiguous running back duos,” that is, running back teammate pairs where neither is projected among the top at the position, but both are being drafted in fantasy football as potential starters.

We refer to them as ambiguous because there is a lot of uncertainty about how their roles will break out. If one back is clearly in line for a much larger share of touches, they are not part of this group.

We’ll dive into the recent data and what it shows about the value within this group, and particularly the second back of the pair. Then, we will discuss the 2024 options.

Ambiguous Running Back Duos, Defined

For analysis purposes, we need to set some rules about what constitutes an ambiguous running back duo, so that we can organize the data.

We’ll define an ambiguous running back duo as one where exactly two RB teammates are being drafted between RB21 and RB44 in positional average draft position (ADP), according to FantasyPros half-PPR data. These are not Best Ball ADP’s, but this data goes back further, and since we’re only concerned with where running backs rank relative to each other, and not relative to other positions, this should work for our purposes.

That limits us to approximately the bottom 12 team running back situations (since the top 20 running backs by ADP will all typically be from different teams), and finding those situations where two running backs are seen as near equal, with plenty of uncertainty around how it will play out.

Using that definition, we found all pairs from 2015 to 2023 who qualified, and noted each running back’s ADP, and also observed how those backs (and all backs drafted in this range) did.

The Breakdown on Running Back Types

For running backs in the ADP range of RB21 to RB44, there were:

• 216 total RBs in the data set;
• 55 pairs of ambiguous running back duos;
• 53 “other” running backs with an ADP of RB21 to RB32; and
• 53 “other” running backs with an ADP of RB33 to RB44.

The “other” running backs in the ADP RB21 to B32 range tend to be projected starters where the backup situation is less certain. In 2024, Zamir White of Las Vegas is an example of this, where no other Raider back is being drafted inside RB60 on average. This group will also occasionally include the second running back on a strong offense, where the first back is going much earlier.

The “other” running backs in the ADP RB33 to RB44 range tend to either be the top projected back in completely uncertain situations (think Gus Edwards for the Chargers in 2024) or backups to earlier-drafted top running backs (like 2024 rookie Blake Corum behind Kyren Williams).

Let’s take a look at how these different types of running backs have done.

Ambiguous Running Back Duos versus Other Backs

Here is a list of everyone drafted between RB21 and RB44 who ended up scoring at least 200.0 fantasy points in a half-PPR format like that used at Underdog Fantasy. (For 2015 and 2016, we used the average of the non-PPR and PPR ADP data, since there was no half-PPR ranks.)

Year	First	Last	Team	RB ADP	Half PPR	Age	Exp	CATEGORY
2022	Josh	Jacobs	LV	23	302	24	3	LEAD BACK
2015	Devonta	Freeman	ATL	38	280	23	1	AMBIGUOUS DUO #2
2019	Austin	Ekeler	LAC	29	263	24	2	AMBIGUOUS DUO #2
2023	Raheem	Mostert	MIA	37	255	31	8	AMBIGUOUS DUO #1
2017	Mark	Ingram	NO	21	249	28	6	AMBIGUOUS DUO #1
2021	James	Conner	ARI	37	239	26	4	AMBIGUOUS DUO #2
2023	Kyren	Williams	LAR	40	239	23	1	AMBIGUOUS DUO #2
2020	David	Montgomery	CHI	27	238	23	1	AMBIGUOUS DUO #1
2023	Rachaad	White	TB	27	236	24	1	LEAD BACK
2018	James	White	NE	43	233	26	4	TRIO MEMBER #3
2019	Mark	Ingram	BAL	22	230	30	8	LEAD BACK
2016	Melvin	Gordon	SD	24	230	23	1	AMBIGUOUS DUO #1
2022	Tony	Pollard	DAL	35	229	25	3	PROJECTED BACKUP
2016	LeGarrette	Blount	NE	38	229	30	6	AMBIGUOUS DUO #1
2021	Leonard	Fournette	TB	33	221	26	4	AMBIGUOUS DUO #2
2015	Doug	Martin	TB	27	216	26	3	LEAD BACK
2022	Rhamondre	Stevenson	NE	36	215	24	1	AMBIGUOUS DUO #2
2023	James	Cook	BUF	22	211	24	1	LEAD BACK
2015	DeAngelo	Williams	PIT	43	211	32	9	PROJECTED BACKUP
2022	Miles	Sanders	PHI	30	207	25	3	LEAD BACK
2016	Jay	Ajayi	MIA	39	202	23	1	AMBIGUOUS DUO #2
2015	Danny	Woodhead	SD	42	202	30	6	PROJECTED BACKUP
2021	Damien	Harris	NE	25	201	24	2	AMBIGUOUS DUO #1

That list is sorted by descending Half-PPR points. While Josh Jacobs was the smash play in 2022 that carried teams to a high advance rate in Best Ball contests, he was actually an exception, as the clear lead back with an ADP below RB20 (and that was driven by concerns over whether new head coach Josh McDaniels wanted to trade him or whether he had fallen out of favor).

The next seven biggest booms out of this range came out of ambiguous duo situations, with four of them being the second-drafted back of a pair.

Characteristics of the Biggest Booms After RB20

Let’s quickly go over some observations about the running backs drafted in this range between RB21 and RB44.

Overall Boom Rates (200+ Half-PPR Points)

• The second back in ambiguous duos produced a boom with at least 200 half-PPR points in a season at a rate of 13% (7 of 55)
• The first back drafted in ambiguous duos produced a boom 11% of the time (6 0f 55)
• “Other” backs drafted from RB21 to RB32 had a boom 12% of the time (6 of 53)
• “Other” backs drafted from RB33 to RB44 boomed 8% (4 of 53)

Considering that James Cook is lumped into the “Other” backs, because Damien Harris is listed at RB45, just outside the range, for 2023, but was being drafted inside it for most of the summer, and that James White was the third back in the rare ambiguous trio in New England, and is lumped in with “Other” backs, this summary understates the upside of playing into these perceived ambiguous situations.

Overall Cost of RBs by Category

Here were the average positional ADP for these categories in the RB21 to RB44 range:

• “Other” backs drafted from RB21 to RB32: 26.1 (pick 92)
• The first back drafted in ambiguous duos: 28.2 (pick 94)
• The second back drafted in ambiguous duos: 36.8 (pick 120)
• “Other” backs drafted from RB33 to RB44: 38.1 (pick 122)

In parentheses, we listed the average overall draft pick from Underdog draft data, that would translate to that category’s average ADP.

Considering that the second back taken out of duos actually had the highest boom rate, targeting those types of backs has provided the best bang for the buck. Most of them have been drafted after RB32, but have produced a notably higher boom rate than similarly-drafted backs who were not part of a perceived committee.

• The market has not been particularly good at predicting which back will emerge as the best option from the duo, as the second back being drafted has performed as well as the first on average in terms of boom seasons, as well as other measures like average points and percentage that finished in the Top 12 or Top 24 at the position in season-ending points.

The Second Year Running Backs Have Been High Performers