Similar Player Projections for 2024 Best Ball

We show the results of our similar player database, to let you visualize how past players similar to this year performed.

One of the factors we use for our fantasy projections and rankings is to use a similarity analysis, which you can see detailed here.

The TL;DR version of that is we are looking at a database of player-seasons going back to 2007, and finding similar seasons based on last year’s stats, to see how those players performed.

Some of the key factors we use are:

• Previous year rate and total stats, such as rushing yards, td rate, yards per carry or catch, etc.;
• Average draft position at the player’s position for the upcoming season;
• Biographical information, like the player’s age and years of experience, height/weight, and draft position;
• Team level data, like total team passing and rushing yards from the previous year, and upcoming win total projection for next season.

Let’s take De’Von Achane as an example. The goal is to identify how other running backs who were being drafted as around the RB8, entering their second year, and with a high yards per carry and other stats most similar to Achane, did. Even though Achane is very close to Derrick Henry in position rank, his similar players are going to be very different from Henry’s, who are going to be older backs with a heavy rush-to-reception ratio.

Now that we are entering training camp mode, and the market has largely settled so far from the early movement since we launched the initial projections in early May, we are doing an update. Along with that, we’re providing some similar player data at QB, RB, WR, and TE, to help you understand the basis for our updates.

We list a variety of data, including the player’s positional ADP rank, the average positional ADP rank of the similar players included in this analysis, the average half-point PPR points scored by the top 12 most similar players (as well as their average games played, and points per game), and the number of seasons from the most similar players that met certain benchmarks at each position. The current positional ADP is a blend of Underdog and DraftKings positional ADP ranks.

A couple of final caveats: rookies are not included here (since we have no previous year stats) and there are also some veterans who do not appear because they did not meet minimum touch thresholds at the position due to injury or non-participation. While the “similar players” does a pretty good job of showing similar past players who had a lot of missed games the year before, it’s going to be less reliable when it involves players who had injuries at the end of last year (and thus didn’t miss many games) but those injuries will extend into this season, as well as with players with suspension risk this year. Examples this year include T.J. Hockenson and Rashee Rice.

Quarterbacks, Similar Player Results

First	Last	QB ADP	Comp ADP	Half-PPR	Games	PPG	300 Pt Seasons	200 Pt Seasons
Josh	Allen	1	2.0	338.0	15.8	21.4	8	11
Jalen	Hurts	2	2.5	337.4	15.6	21.6	9	12
Lamar	Jackson	3	3.0	312.1	14.8	21.1	7	11
Patrick	Mahomes	4	3.8	287.6	13.8	20.8	5	8
CJ	Stroud	6	6.3	288.9	15.9	18.2	5	11
Kyler	Murray	7	6.6	282.4	15.1	18.7	6	10
Dak	Prescott	8	8.3	260.2	15.2	17.1	2	11
Joe	Burrow	9	9.2	266.8	15.7	17.0	1	10
Jordan	Love	10	8.5	293.5	16.7	17.6	3	12
Brock	Purdy	12	11.5	280.6	16.4	17.1	2	12
Jared	Goff	14	13.7	282.9	16.6	17.0	3	11
Trevor	Lawrence	15	15.3	262.3	15.7	16.7	2	9
Tua	Tagovailoa	16	16.3	257.2	16.1	16.0	1	10
Justin	Herbert	17	16.3	261.8	15.6	16.8	2	10
Kirk	Cousins	18	17.4	228.2	14.2	16.1	2	7
Matthew	Stafford	19	18.9	190.0	13.1	14.5	0	6
Deshaun	Watson	21	21.6	179.3	13.3	13.5	0	4
Baker	Mayfield	22	22.6	222.2	14.7	15.1	0	8
Geno	Smith	23	23.8	204.5	12.7	16.1	1	5
Will	Levis	24	23.5	170.0	12.6	13.5	0	3
Daniel	Jones	26	26.8	179.1	12.9	13.9	0	6
Bryce	Young	27	28.6	197.6	13.4	14.7	1	6
Derek	Carr	28	26.3	205.2	12.2	16.8	1	6
Russell	Wilson	30	28.6	175.0	12.6	13.9	0	5
Justin	Fields	32	29.8	168.3	12.2	13.8	0	3
Gardner	Minshew	33	30.9	174.1	12.4	14.0	0	4
Sam	Darnold	35	31.7	126.7	10.4	12.2	0	3

• Anthony Richardson does not make the list based on the low number of games played last year, and few similar comps, but the “elite” tier, when it comes to 300-point seasons (which would have qualified as QB6 or better last year), seems to include everyone down to Kyler Murray due to rushing upside.
• Mahomes’ similar players included an unlucky amount of key injuries, such as an Aaron Rodgers/Packers season and Joe Burrow last year, but on a points-per-game basis, he belongs near the same tier as the top three options.
• Jordan Love looks a little undervalued, at 26 years old, coming off a 32-TD season and playing on a perceived playoff contender.
• The “safety” tier break seems to fall after Justin Herbert, in terms of guys that are most likely to at least put up “good” seasons with at least 200 fantasy points.
• Kirk Cousins is a little riskier given his age and games missed last year, but is also the last QB to have multiple similar players show up with an elite season. After that, the path to an elite seasonal outcome dries up pretty quickly.

Running Backs, Similar Player Results

For running backs, we will divide the tables up into tiers for easier viewing.

Running Back Group A

First	Last	RB ADP	Comp ADP	Half-PPR	Games	PPG	200 Pt Seasons	100 Pt Seasons
Christian	McCaffrey	1	2.4	274.6	15.5	17.7	10	12
Bijan	Robinson	2	5.6	219.5	13.4	16.4	5	10
Breece	Hall	3	3.9	233.4	14.2	16.4	8	10
Jahmyr	Gibbs	4	6.8	241.3	15.5	15.6	6	12
Jonathan	Taylor	5	6.7	220.4	15.0	14.7	8	12
Saquon	Barkley	6	6.8	210.1	14.6	14.4	7	11
De'Von	Achane	7	8.6	240.3	14.8	16.2	7	12
Kyren	Williams	8	7.0	224.4	13.8	16.3	6	12
Derrick	Henry	9	10.4	171.2	14.3	12.0	3	10
Isiah	Pacheco	10	11.2	179.5	13.3	13.5	5	10
Travis	Etienne	11	10.3	200.8	15.0	13.4	5	12
Josh	Jacobs	12	12.4	200.8	14.2	14.1	5	11
James	Cook	13	13.3	177.1	14.1	12.6	4	11
Joe	Mixon	14	13.4	181.3	14.2	12.8	5	10
Rachaad	White	15	14.4	185.3	13.4	13.8	2	12
Kenneth	Walker	16	16.3	159.8	14.1	11.3	2	10
Alvin	Kamara	17	16.5	157.4	14.8	10.6	1	10
David	Montgomery	18	16.0	144.9	13.0	11.1	1	9
Aaron	Jones	19	20.5	155.8	13.5	11.5	3	9
Rhamondre	Stevenson	20	19.8	160.5	13.6	11.8	3	8
James	Conner	22	23.3	149.9	13.8	10.9	1	10
Zamir	White	23	23.5	98.0	10.3	9.5	0	5
Najee	Harris	24	23.8	141.2	13.3	10.6	1	6
D'Andre	Swift	25	24.8	128.0	11.1	11.5	1	6
Jaylen	Warren	26	26.4	134.4	13.6	9.9	1	8
Raheem	Mostert	27	27.9	130.6	13.1	10.0	1	7
Zack	Moss	28	27.8	111.8	12.1	9.2	1	5
Tony	Pollard	29	27.8	137.0	14.1	9.7	2	6
Tyjae	Spears	30	30.9	161.7	14.6	11.1	4	10
Brian	Robinson	31	30.4	162.4	15.2	10.7	2	10
Devin	Singletary	32	32.2	130.7	15.2	8.6	0	9
Javonte	Williams	33	33.6	117.4	12.7	9.2	0	8

• Christian McCaffrey is the clear top option at the position, but the Top 8 at RB presents several interesting profiles who have provided elite seasons.
• Derrick Henry stands out with some red flags based on similar players. His similar players had an average age of 29.4 and were going in the same range, and include names like Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Michael Turner, Jamal Lewis, DeMarco Murray, and Frank Gore. The similar players were also actually more productive the year before (1348 rush yards vs 1167 for Henry).
• From a seasonal upside standpoint, there’s a tier break in profiles after Joe Mixon, as everyone but Henry above him had at least 33% of the similar players produce 200+ half-point PPR seasons, and only one other back (who we’ll get to later) in the draft meets that criteria.
• There’s a safety tier break after James Conner, in terms of the risk of the back finishing with under 100 half-point PPR points.
• The Zamir White profile (running back being drafted based on projected role, with limited overall stats the previous year) has been a risky one, as has Zack Moss, as over half the similar comps finished with under 100 points.
• Tyjae Spears stands out as a boom profile, as a second-year back who had good production as a receiver as a rookie. The RBs overall going RB29 to RB33 have better historic profiles than those going RB23 to RB28, and it’s been a range where the market has often not gotten the ordering correct in the past.

Running Back Group B

First	Last	RB ADP	Comp ADP	Half-PPR	Games	PPG	200 Pt Seasons	100 Pt Seasons
Austin	Ekeler	35	34.4	121.4	13.7	8.9	0	6
Nick	Chubb	36	36.4	72.1	9.3	7.8	0	5
Gus	Edwards	37	36.0	132.2	15.2	8.7	2	8
Jerome	Ford	40	38.8	109.7	12.4	8.8	1	6
Chase	Brown	41	41.1	140.5	14.2	9.9	1	9
Zach	Charbonnet	42	42.2	149.4	15.3	9.8	2	9
Rico	Dowdle	43	42.2	90.8	12.7	7.1	1	5
Ty	Chandler	45	44.7	88.4	13.7	6.5	0	5
Kendre	Miller	46	45.7	108.6	12.8	8.5	1	5
Chuba	Hubbard	48	47.5	90.4	12.9	7.0	0	6
Jaleel	McLaughlin	49	49.3	127.0	15.2	8.4	1	9
Tyler	Allgeier	50	49.3	91.1	14.3	6.4	0	6
Antonio	Gibson	52	52.4	111.8	13.9	8.0	1	5
Elijah	Mitchell	55	55.5	89.6	14.9	6.0	0	4
Khalil	Herbert	57	57.7	83.2	13.3	6.3	0	3
Roschon	Johnson	60	61.3	69.0	12.5	5.5	0	3
Clyde	Edwards-Helaire	61	64.1	37.6	8.3	4.5	0	0
Dameon	Pierce	62	65.0	65.3	10.5	6.2	0	3
D'Onta	Foreman	64	65.0	27.1	6.0	4.5	0	1
Tank	Bigsby	65	65.0	37.6	6.8	5.5	0	1
Alexander	Mattison	66	65.0	52.7	12.3	4.3	0	1
Keaton	Mitchell	68	65.0	34.5	7.5	4.6	0	1
AJ	Dillon	69	65.0	50.0	10.7	4.7	0	2
Trey	Sermon	70	65.0	41.6	6.5	6.4	0	1
Kenneth	Gainwell	75	65.0	44.7	9.9	4.5	0	2
Samaje	Perine	76	65.0	58.4	10.4	5.6	0	2
Cordarrelle	Patterson	77	65.0	26.7	9.6	2.8	0	0
Cam	Akers	78	65.0	42.2	6.3	6.7	0	3
Justice	Hill	79	65.0	57.0	10.3	5.5	0	3
Miles	Sanders	82	65.0	64.9	12.7	5.1	0	2
Jamaal	Williams	84	65.0	40.2	8.7	4.6	0	1

• The elite season upside dries up pretty quickly once you get outside the Top 33 RBs.
• Zach Charbonnet looks like the last shot at an elite upside profile, as a second-year back with decent draft capital and production as a rookie.
• Charbonnet and Chase Brown have the two highest average projected points, and produce the most “decent” seasons, once you get outside the Top 33 RBs.
• Jaleel McLaughlin is an interesting one as well, and looks like a decent “floor” play as a second-year back with receiving ability.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire has no similar players who did anything. Even the similar players analysis recognizes that he is not good. Cordarrelle Patterson at age 33 is the only other back in the table who had no similar players reach 100 points in half-PPR.
• There’s a tier break after Antonio Gibson in terms of upside and safety, and then again after the Bears’ duo of Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, plus Dameon Pierce. After that range, hitting on a veteran RB who is outside the top 60 is pretty hard to do.

Wide Receivers, Similar Player Results

Just as with RBs, we are dividing the WRs up into different tables by ADP.

Wide Receiver Group A

First	Last	WR ADP	Comp ADP	Half-PPR	Games	PPG	200 Pt Seasons	100 Pt Seasons
CeeDee	Lamb	1	1.8	221.2	13.6	16.3	7	10
Tyreek	Hill	2	2.8	232.3	15.1	15.4	8	11
Ja'Marr	Chase	3	3.9	220.9	13.9	15.9	7	10
Justin	Jefferson	4	5.3	235.3	15.3	15.4	8	11
Amon-Ra	St. Brown	5	4.6	226.9	14.6	15.5	6	11
AJ	Brown	6	6.5	230.0	15.7	14.6	8	12
Puka	Nacua	7	7.3	231.6	15.7	14.8	9	11
Garrett	Wilson	8	9.6	219.1	16.3	13.4	6	12
Drake	London	10	11.6	192.1	16.1	11.9	2	12
Nico	Collins	11	10.8	195.4	15.2	12.9	5	12
Chris	Olave	12	11.6	191.3	15.1	12.7	3	12
Davante	Adams	13	12.7	145.8	14.8	9.9	2	10
Deebo	Samuel	14	14.5	161.6	14.6	11.1	3	10
Jaylen	Waddle	15	14.7	176.4	14.4	12.3	4	10
Mike	Evans	16	14.8	161.1	15.1	10.7	2	10
Brandon	Aiyuk	17	17.7	179.6	15.0	12.0	4	11
DeVonta	Smith	18	18.7	175.1	14.9	11.8	3	12
Cooper	Kupp	19	19.6	180.7	15.5	11.7	3	11
DK	Metcalf	20	19.4	175.2	15.8	11.1	5	11
DJ	Moore	22	21.4	182.4	15.0	12.2	4	11
Stefon	Diggs	23	22.7	168.5	14.3	11.8	2	11
Michael	Pittman	24	23.0	189.1	15.3	12.4	2	12
Tank	Dell	25	24.1	163.2	14.5	11.3	1	9
Zay	Flowers	26	26.1	149.7	14.6	10.3	1	10
George	Pickens	27	26.9	157.4	13.3	11.8	2	9
Amari	Cooper	28	28.4	128.6	13.5	9.5	0	9
Tee	Higgins	29	29.7	129.1	13.4	9.6	2	8
Christian	Kirk	30	30.0	155.2	13.4	11.6	2	10
Terry	McLaurin	31	31.0	155.0	15.3	10.1	1	10
Marquise	Brown	32	32.0	150.4	14.1	10.7	1	11
Keenan	Allen	33	32.6	152.2	15.4	9.9	3	10
Calvin	Ridley	34	34.3	134.3	14.4	9.3	1	8
Jayden	Reed	35	35.3	125.4	13.3	9.4	1	9
Chris	Godwin	36	35.5	130.5	14.6	8.9	0	9
Rashee	Rice	37	36.9	124.9	13.2	9.5	0	10

• While there seems to be a clear hierarchy of the ordering of the top 8 wide receivers, all of them present upside profiles and at least half of their similar players had 200+ points in half-PPR.
• After that top eight, the upside outlook changes, as Nico Collins and D.K. Metcalf are the only two with 5 similar players of at least 200+ points, and Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, and D.J. Moore as the only others with 4 such similar players.
• Davante Adams stands out as a risky profile, as a soon-to-be 32-year-old WR coming off a high reception but low yards per catch season, and being drafted at around WR13. His similar players have the lowest average of any WR inside the top 28, and include names like Larry Fitzgerald, Torry Holt, Vincent Jackson, Steve Smith, and Roddy White at a similar age.

Wide Receiver Group B

First	Last	WR ADP	Comp ADP	Half-PPR	Games	PPG	200 Pt Seasons	100 Pt Seasons
DeAndre	Hopkins	39	39.2	131.7	15.0	8.8	1	7
Christian	Watson	40	39.7	133.8	13.2	10.1	2	8
Diontae	Johnson	44	43.1	119.3	12.8	9.3	1	6
Jaxon	Smith-Njigba	46	44.8	150.4	14.0	10.7	0	10
Jordan	Addison	47	46.7	127.5	12.9	9.9	0	8
Jameson	Williams	48	47.4	118.5	11.6	10.2	2	7
Curtis	Samuel	49	49.0	95.8	13.5	7.1	0	6
Courtland	Sutton	50	49.7	87.5	12.1	7.2	0	5
Josh	Palmer	51	50.6	96.1	10.2	9.4	1	3
Romeo	Doubs	52	52.2	105.6	11.7	9.0	0	8
Tyler	Lockett	53	53.0	117.4	13.1	9.0	0	8
Rashid	Shaheed	54	53.6	119.8	14.5	8.3	0	7
Brandin	Cooks	55	54.7	99.5	12.6	7.9	0	7
Khalil	Shakir	56	55.3	115.8	13.6	8.5	1	6
Jakobi	Meyers	57	56.5	140.6	14.2	9.9	1	8
Dontayvion	Wicks	58	59.5	95.2	11.7	8.1	0	5
Jerry	Jeudy	59	59.8	125.4	14.4	8.7	0	8
Mike	Williams	61	64.6	59.3	8.1	7.3	1	1
Gabe	Davis	62	64.4	83.7	11.8	7.1	0	3
Jahan	Dotson	63	65.0	74.7	12.5	6.0	0	3
Josh	Downs	64	65.0	90.7	14.0	6.5	0	3
Darnell	Mooney	68	65.0	55.1	10.0	5.5	0	1
DeMario	Douglas	70	65.0	67.8	11.3	6.0	0	1
Quentin	Johnston	71	65.0	53.0	9.1	5.8	0	2
Adam	Thielen	72	65.0	65.2	10.2	6.4	0	3
Wan'Dale	Robinson	73	65.0	90.4	13.0	7.0	0	5
Rashod	Bateman	74	65.0	49.8	9.3	5.4	0	3
Demarcus	Robinson	75	65.0	53.4	9.9	5.4	0	0
Michael	Wilson	76	65.0	84.2	12.6	6.7	0	3
Marvin	Mims	80	65.0	62.7	11.4	5.5	0	1

• The elite season potential continues to dry up as you move outside the top 35 at WR, and only two WRs had multiple similar players show up with 200+ half-PPR points: Christian Watson and Jameson Williams. Both are third-year WRs who have missed time due to injuries (and suspension, in Williams case).
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the best average of any WR outside the Top 35 (150.4). While none of his similar players reached 200 half-PPR points, several of them were just below that mark, including his most similar, DeAndre Hopkins going into Year Two. Four of his similar players had 1,000-yard seasons and all but two of them reached 620 receiving yards (and one of those was due to suspension, Justin Blackmon). His similar players profile as well as a bunch of wide receivers being drafted three to four rounds earlier.
• Jakobi Meyers seems undervalued, as his similar players have the next highest average of this group, after Smith-Njigba, and he is going in the same WR ADP range as he did a year ago, even though he finished 21st in WR scoring last year.
• Things really fall off after pick 60 (all historical WRs are assigned positional ADP of 65 since we typically only have values through about that range). The likelihood of hitting even a semi-reliable WR is well under 50% once you enter that part of the draft. Based on recent history, this is a part of the draft where you are more likely to find booms by drafting rookie WRs with a lot of uncertainty about their roles and talent.

Wide Receiver Group C

First	Last	WR ADP	Comp ADP	Half-PPR	Games	PPG	200 Pt Seasons	100 Pt Seasons
Tyler	Boyd	83	65.0	63.5	10.1	6.3	0	4
Darius	Slayton	85	65.0	73.9	12.1	6.1	0	3
DJ	Chark	86	65.0	70.1	10.9	6.4	0	2
Zay	Jones	88	65.0	57.0	8.7	6.6	0	2
Greg	Dortch	89	65.0	56.3	10.0	5.6	0	2
Jalen	Tolbert	90	65.0	77.0	13.0	5.9	0	3
Odell	Beckham	91	65.0	75.4	10.3	7.3	0	2
Rondale	Moore	92	65.0	87.1	12.7	6.9	0	3
Jalin	Hyatt	93	65.0	67.8	11.3	6.0	0	2
Kalif	Raymond	94	65.0	52.5	10.7	4.9	0	0
Elijah	Moore	95	65.0	112.3	14.2	7.9	1	6
Jajuan	Jennings	96	65.0	49.1	8.3	5.9	0	1
Kendrick	Bourne	98	65.0	52.3	9.1	5.7	0	1
Bo	Melton	100	65.0	36.9	7.0	5.3	0	1
Noah	Brown	102	65.0	48.7	8.2	5.9	0	1
Cedric	Tillman	103	65.0	55.0	9.4	5.9	0	2
Josh	Reynolds	105	65.0	44.7	9.0	5.0	0	1
Tre	Tucker	106	65.0	70.7	10.2	6.9	0	4
Andre	Iosivas	107	65.0	50.5	9.0	5.6	0	1
KJ	Osborn	108	65.0	78.1	12.0	6.5	0	3
Kadarius	Toney	109	65.0	62.5	10.3	6.1	0	2
Marquez	Valdes-Scantling	110	65.0	26.4	6.2	4.3	0	1
Calvin	Austin	111	65.0	67.2	12.1	5.6	0	3
Allen	Lazard	112	65.0	31.5	6.3	5.0	0	0
Van	Jefferson	113	65.0	45.7	8.8	5.2	0	1
Treylon	Burks	114	65.0	56.0	9.0	6.2	0	2
Trey	Palmer	115	65.0	78.7	12.0	6.6	0	4
Parker	Washington	116	65.0	61.1	8.5	7.2	0	4
Tutu	Atwell	119	65.0	55.5	9.7	5.7	0	2
Xavier	Gipson	119	65.0	62.2	11.2	5.6	0	2
Nelson	Agholor	119	65.0	62.7	10.9	5.8	0	2
Mecole	Hardman	119	65.0	54.1	7.0	7.7	0	2
John	Metchie	119	65.0	60.2	10.1	6.0	0	0
Alec	Pierce	119	65.0	96.5	11.2	8.6	0	2
Brandon	Powell	119	65.0	76.8	9.8	7.8	0	2

• This is the true “hope and pray” tier in Best Ball drafts, with WRs that typically are drafted in the final few rounds. You can see that very few provide any season-long upside.
• As noted in the previous section, everyone who did not have an ADP inside the top 64 is assigned “65,” so these players are all compared against similar players who were not being drafted inside the top 64, who had a similar age/draft value/previous year production/team outlook profile.
• The one that stands out is Elijah Moore. Moore has gotten negative buzz (the team acquired Jerry Jeudy, and reporters were talking up Cedric Tillman). But Moore’s profile as a 25-year-old “low yards per catch” guy (typically a slot WR type) has actually produced a fair amount of surprise seasons for guys that were fantasy afterthoughts. That includes productive seasons from Hunter Renfrow, Adam Humphries, Davone Bess, Nelson Agholor, Mark Clayton, and Andre Roberts at a similar age. Over half of his similar players reached 60 receptions or more even though they were not being drafted inside the top 60 at WR when the season began.

Tight Ends, Similar Player Results

First	Last	TE ADP	Comp ADP	Half-PPR	Games	PPG	175 Pt Seasons	75 Pt Seasons
Sam	LaPorta	1	2.9	147.8	13.1	11.3	3	11
Travis	Kelce	2	3.6	170.8	15.3	11.2	5	10
Trey	McBride	3	5.8	133.6	14.1	9.5	3	10
Mark	Andrews	4	3.8	152.7	13.8	11.1	4	10
Dalton	Kincaid	5	8.2	118.4	12.6	9.4	2	9
Kyle	Pitts	6	8.5	132.4	13.8	9.6	3	9
George	Kittle	7	6.0	152.3	14.2	10.7	3	10
Evan	Engram	8	6.4	151.3	14.5	10.4	6	10
Jake	Ferguson	9	9.1	118.9	12.7	9.4	1	9
David	Njoku	11	10.8	117.7	14.7	8.0	1	9
Dallas	Goedert	12	10.9	124.7	14.4	8.7	1	10
Dalton	Schultz	13	11.5	104.6	13.8	7.6	0	8
Pat	Freiermuth	14	14.9	99.8	12.5	8.0	1	7
TJ	Hockenson	15	12.8	124.2	14.7	8.4	0	11
Cole	Kmet	16	14.8	118.1	14.9	7.9	1	10
Luke	Musgrave	17	17.4	99.4	12.6	7.9	1	8
Hunter	Henry	18	18.9	94.5	13.6	6.9	0	9
Cade	Otton	19	20.6	121.7	15.0	8.1	2	9
Tyler	Conklin	20	22.2	78.0	13.2	5.9	0	6
Noah	Fant	21	22.8	97.6	14.6	6.7	1	7
Isaiah	Likely	22	22.8	83.3	12.7	6.6	0	7
Jonnu	Smith	24	24.0	88.8	14.7	6.0	0	7
Chigoziem	Okonkwo	25	25.3	73.1	12.2	6.0	1	4
Juwan	Johnson	26	24.0	85.7	13.8	6.2	0	8
Mike	Gesicki	28	30.8	43.9	8.3	5.3	0	4
Colby	Parkinson	29	32.0	33.1	8.9	3.7	0	1
Dawson	Knox	30	32.0	34.5	8.0	4.3	0	0
Tucker	Kraft	32	32.0	39.1	7.5	5.2	0	1
Hayden	Hurst	33	32.0	26.8	7.4	3.6	0	1
Zach	Ertz	34	32.0	31.7	5.9	5.4	0	1
Michael	Mayer	36	32.0	27.8	7.7	3.6	0	1
Daniel	Bellinger	37	32.0	46.2	9.0	5.1	0	1
Will	Dissly	39	32.0	30.1	7.3	4.1	0	1
Noah	Gray	40	32.0	46.3	10.1	4.6	0	1
Tommy	Tremble	41	32.0	44.8	10.6	4.2	0	3
Davis	Allen	42	32.0	38.9	8.0	4.9	0	2
Gerald	Everett	44	32.0	43.2	8.8	4.9	0	1

• Tight end is probably the most difficult position for this analysis, since there are just fewer comparison points, and particularly among the younger TEs being drafted highly, a lot of the similar players used were not being drafted as highly as the current group, particularly Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride.
• Still, from a bigger picture standpoint, the path to an elite TE season is generally going to involve one of these top eight veteran TEs (setting aside rookie Brock Bowers, not include here, for the moment).
• Jake Ferguson’s profile is one of being relatively safe to produce a starting TE season, but with less elite upside than the top tight ends.
• Dalton Schultz and Pat Freiermuth have a bit riskier profiles than the TEs going right before them, in terms of the number of similar players that failed to get to 75+ points in half-PPR at TE.
• Cade Otton is the only TE outside the top 8 that has multiple similar players with elite seasons. Those were seasons by Vernon Davis and Eric Ebron at the same age, when both had 13 receiving TDs, after they had averaged 2.8 TDs per season up to that point. Otton’s path to a top-scoring season also likewise probably involves running hot in TDs, but given his age and past production/draft capital, it’s in play.
• There’s a noticeable tier break shortly after Jonnu Smith goes. Chigoziem Okonkwo has a boom-bust profile but at least presents some upside, Juwan Johnson is likely to be a solid producer if healthy, and Mike Gesicki has plenty of downside, but given the offense profiles as being capable of at least giving some production. After that, it’s a much longer shot.