Can All No. 1 Seeds Survive to the Final Four in 2025?

The 2025 top seeds look like a strong group, but what are the odds that all four of them reach the Final Four?

Auburn enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament as the No. 1 overall seed. (Photo: Jeff Moreland/Icon Sportswire)

The No. 1 seeds in 2025 appear to be a particularly strong group, but history suggests that dominance in the regular season doesn’t always translate to the Final Four. In fact, the odds of zero No. 1 seeds making it—like in 2023 and 2011—are actually higher than the chances of all four advancing, as they did in 2008.

Statistically, it’s more likely we see just one top seed reach the Final Four rather than three, a scenario that last happened in 2015.

So how can this be a strong year for No. 1 seeds while the numbers tell a different story? Let’s break it down.

Winning Four Games in a Row Against Strong Competition Isn’t Easy

The No. 1 seeds may look stronger than in recent years, but even elite teams aren’t immune to the unpredictability of March Madness. Winning four consecutive games—each against quality opponents—comes with plenty of hurdles, even when a team enters as a 75% to 80% favorite in every round. Over multiple games, those odds add up, making it more likely than not that at least one top seed stumbles before the Final Four.

Below, we break down the projected odds of different numbers of No. 1 seeds reaching this year’s Final Four, along with historical data from the last 20 NCAA Tournaments for context.

This year, we project an average of 1.8 No. 1 seeds in the Final Four, which is higher than the 1.5 average over the last 20 years. We also give this year’s group a better chance than usual to get at least three No. 1 seeds through, though that has only happened once in the last 20 years and remains an underdog outcome.

So Why Pick a Bunch of No. 1 Seeds to the Final Four?

If we know that all four No. 1 seeds rarely make the Final Four—and that at least two are more likely to lose along the way—why is it often still the best strategy to pick multiple top seeds?

The answer is a twist on a classic quote about democracy: picking No. 1 seeds is the worst form of bracket strategy… except for all the others.

Do you know what’s even less likely than multiple No. 1 seeds making deep runs? Successfully predicting which lower seeds will replace them. Many people try to pick the perfect Cinderella team—like a No. 5 or No. 10 seed—to reach the Final Four, only to end up wrecking their brackets. Even in years when an underdog does make a run, choosing the right one is extremely difficult.

Fourteen of the last 20 national champions have been No. 1 seeds. Avoiding them entirely often means missing out on the most important pick in your bracket. In multiple years, only two No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four, but those teams ended up playing each other in the title game—most recently Connecticut vs. Purdue in 2024 and Baylor vs. Gonzaga in 2021.

Most winning bracket entries in those years had that exact matchup in the final without perfectly predicting the Cinderella runs. That alone was enough to cash in a pool.