Pool Genius
Win More Sports Pools
Data we started collecting in 2014 shows that our subscribers
Won pick’em pools 50% more often than expected
That’s the difference between winning a 25-person pool once every 17 years, instead of the baseline expectation of once every 25 years.
The performance data tables below reflect customer reported results from 11,001 real-world pools.
Year to year, how often have our subscribers won a prize in each individual pick’em pool they entered, compared to expectations?
| Season Prize Win Rate | Weekly Prize Win Rate | Combined | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Won At Least 1 Prize |
| 2014 | 10% | 40% | 3.9x | 42% | 56% | 1.3x | 62% |
| 2015 | 11% | 26% | 2.4x | 41% | 46% | 1.1x | 52% |
| 2016 | 11% | 16% | 1.5x | 41% | 45% | 1.1x | 46% |
| 2017 | 10% | 45% | 4.4x | 41% | 62% | 1.5x | 67% |
| 2018 | 10% | 54% | 5.2x | 40% | 56% | 1.4x | 66% |
| 2019 | 10% | 30% | 2.9x | 39% | 44% | 1.1x | 50% |
| 2020 | 10% | 40% | 3.9x | 38% | 44% | 1.2x | 51% |
| 2021 | 10% | 31% | 3.0x | 40% | 51% | 1.3x | 53% |
| 2022 | 10% | 63% | 6.6x | 38% | 56% | 1.5x | 70% |
| 2023 | 10% | 44% | 4.6x | 38% | 44% | 1.2x | 55% |
| 2024 | 10% | 22% | 2.2x | 36% | 32% | 0.9x | 34% |
| Total | 10% | 40% | 4.0x | 39% | 49% | 1.2x | 56% |
On average, our subscribers have won a prize in 56% of pools they have entered. That win rate is 50% higher than the expectation of 37%.
Breaking that down by the pool prize format, our subscribers have won a prize in 40% of full-season pools they've entered, and in 49% of the pools with weekly prizes that they've entered. Those win rates are 298% and 25% higher than expectation, respectively.
Based on our customer surveys, every year, an average of
71% of our subscribers win at least one pick’em pool prize
This number includes both full-season prizes and weekly prizes. Breaking that down, 52% of our subscribers participating in full-season pools report winning at least one season prize, and 61% of our subscribers participating in pools with weekly prizes report winning at least one weekly prize.
Winning a pool is tough and our picks certainly don’t win every year. But if you’re willing to trust the process, the longer term rewards have been impressive.
Year to year, how often have our subscribers won at least one pick’em pool prize across all pools they entered, compared to expectations?
| Season Prize Win Rate | Weekly Prize Win Rate | Combined | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Won At Least 1 Prize |
| 2014 | 15% | 52% | 3.6x | 54% | 65% | 1.2x | 76% |
| 2015 | 15% | 34% | 2.2x | 49% | 55% | 1.1x | 64% |
| 2016 | 16% | 22% | 1.4x | 54% | 58% | 1.1x | 61% |
| 2017 | 14% | 56% | 3.9x | 52% | 74% | 1.4x | 80% |
| 2018 | 14% | 66% | 4.6x | 50% | 68% | 1.4x | 80% |
| 2019 | 15% | 39% | 2.6x | 51% | 56% | 1.1x | 64% |
| 2020 | 14% | 53% | 3.7x | 49% | 55% | 1.1x | 67% |
| 2021 | 15% | 42% | 2.8x | 52% | 63% | 1.2x | 68% |
| 2022 | 14% | 78% | 5.5x | 51% | 71% | 1.4x | 87% |
| 2023 | 15% | 59% | 4.0x | 52% | 58% | 1.1x | 74% |
| 2024 | 15% | 33% | 2.2x | 50% | 44% | 0.9x | 50% |
| Total | 15% | 52% | 3.5x | 51% | 61% | 1.2x | 71% |
On average, 71% of our subscribers have won at least one pick’em pool prize each year. That win rate is 37% higher than the expectation of 52%.
Drilling down into the details of survey responses, we find that
Reported edges hold across a variety of pool types and sizes
It's not just a lucky performance in one type of pool driving the overall success rates.
Since 2014, how often have our subscribers won a prize in pick’em pools they entered, compared to expectations and broken down by the specific rules of each pool?
| Season Prize Win Rate | Weekly Prize Win Rate | Combined | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pick Type | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Won At Least 1 Prize |
| Game Winner Picks | 10% | 47% | 4.5x | 42% | 51% | 1.2x | 62% |
| Spread Picks | 10% | 30% | 3.1x | 34% | 45% | 1.3x | 47% |
Our subscribers have won prizes at a better-than-expected rate regardless of whether they had to make picks stright up or against the spread.
| Season Prize Win Rate | Weekly Prize Win Rate | Combined | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring Type | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Won At Least 1 Prize |
| Fixed Points | 9% | 31% | 3.5x | 33% | 45% | 1.4x | 48% |
| Confidence Points | 12% | 51% | 4.5x | 46% | 53% | 1.1x | 67% |
Our subscribers have been successful both in pools that use confidence points and in those with fixed point values.
| Season Prize Win Rate | Weekly Prize Win Rate | Combined | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Slate Type | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Won At Least 1 Prize |
| Fixed Game Slate | 10% | 42% | 4.1x | 40% | 50% | 1.2x | 59% |
| User Selects Games | 9% | 26% | 2.9x | 29% | 37% | 1.2x | 37% |
Some pools allow entrants to select which games they'll make picks on. Our subscribers have performed well in these pools, as well as in pools where you pick every game from a defined slate.
| Season Prize Win Rate | Weekly Prize Win Rate | Combined | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Won At Least 1 Prize |
| NFL | 10% | 41% | 4.1x | 40% | 50% | 1.3x | 58% |
| College Football | 9% | 25% | 2.8x | 25% | 30% | 1.2x | 35% |
| NFL + College | 11% | 40% | 3.8x | 39% | 45% | 1.1x | 53% |
Our pick’em advice covers the NFL and college football, including pools where games from both leagues are used. Subscribers have fared well in pools focused on either league, or in combo pools that combine the two.
As you can see, our football pick’em picks have delivered an edge in all types of supported pools. Note that we support combinations of these types, but if we break it down any further, the sample size gets too small to be meaningful.
Since 2014, how often have our subscribers won a prize in pick’em pools they entered, compared to expectations and broken down the size of each pool?
| Season Prize Win Rate | Weekly Prize Win Rate | Combined | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pool Size | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Won At Least 1 Prize |
| 25 or fewer | 16% | 53% | 3.4x | 61% | 69% | 1.1x | 69% |
| 26 to 50 | 11% | 45% | 4.2x | 43% | 55% | 1.3x | 64% |
| 51 to 100 | 8% | 36% | 4.8x | 31% | 40% | 1.3x | 54% |
| 101 to 250 | 5% | 28% | 5.1x | 19% | 31% | 1.7x | 42% |
| 251 to 1,000 | 3% | 16% | 5.8x | 12% | 25% | 2.1x | 28% |
| 1,001 to 9,999 | 2% | 7% | 3.6x | 2% | 7% | 3.2x | 10% |
As expected, the bigger the pool, the harder it is to win. Still, our picks have outperformed expectations by a wide margin in larger pools.
Since 2014, how often have our subscribers won a prize in pick’em pools they entered, compared to expectations and broken down by the number of sheets entered in each pool?
| Season Prize Win Rate | Weekly Prize Win Rate | Combined | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number Of User Entries | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Expected Win % | Actual Win % | Win % vs. Expectation | Won At Least 1 Prize |
| 1 | 10% | 41% | 4.3x | 38% | 50% | 1.3x | 57% |
| 2 | 13% | 36% | 2.7x | 43% | 42% | 1.0x | 50% |
| 3 or more | 19% | 34% | 1.8x | 51% | 46% | 0.9x | 49% |
So far, our biggest edge vs. expectations has been a single-entry strategy. That makes sense, since the first set of picks we recommend is the one with the best chance to win. Second and third entries make some different picks than the first entry, sacrificing some edge in order to hedge against the first set of picks.
You might notice that in the table above, entering 2 or 3 pick sets seems to win at a lower rate than entering just 1. That's actually just a quirk of the data, because subscribers playing more than one entry in a pool tended to be playing in larger pools. You can see this by looking at the Expected Win % column. Subscribers entering 3 pick sets don't have expected win rates 3 times higher than subscribers entering only 1 pick set, because their pools are larger.
To calculate how often one should expect to win a prize in a pick’em pool, we make the assumption that all players in the pick’em pool are equally skilled.
In real life that's not exactly true; usually pools are filled with a mix of more skilled and less skilled pickers. But as long as it's a fairly even mix, this approach serves as a simple and "close enough" benchmark.
We also adjust prize win expectations for the payout structure of each subscriber pool, and for the number of entries a subscriber played in a specific pool.
For example, in a 100-person winner-take-all pick’em pool, baseline expectations would give each player a 1-in-100 (or 1%) chance to win a prize, assuming they each entered once.
However, if the pool awarded prizes to the top three finishers, or if a player played two entries in the pool, then their chance to win a prize would be higher than 1%. We account for all of these factors in the "Expected Win %" numbers in the tables above.
We also break the data down separately for season prizes and weekly prizes. The "Season Prize" data above uses data only from pools that award prizes for the best full-season performance. Likewise, the "Weekly Prize" data only from pools that award prizes to the best finishers in each week. Pools that award both types of prizes are included in both types of data above.
The "Weekly Prize" data above represents the rate that subscribers win at least one weekly prize (or their expectation to do so).
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