Week 9 Football Pick’em Contest Strategy & Advice (2025)

NFL pool pick’em strategy and advice for Week 9, including public pick trends, top value picks, and when to fade favorites for an edge.

by Spencer Limbach - Nov 2, 2025

(Photo by Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire)

Here we go with our NFL Pick’em and Spread Pool strategy article for Week 9. This column works best with our Football Pick’em Picks tool, which combines public pick rates with advanced modeling to highlight the smartest plays for your specific football pool and rules.

Each week in this article, we go through practical tips for NFL and college football pick’em contests while running through the reasoning behind our recommendations — especially when the numbers point to a contrarian edge.

We’ll update this article throughout the week with insights, injury notes, market moves, and more.

Here is what is included so far:

• 11/3: Cowboys Line Movement on MNF
• 11/2: Sunday Rooting Guide
• 10/31: Raiders Climb Into Value Territory?
• 10/31: CFB Value Favorites for Saturday
• 10/30: NFL Week 9 Picks Video
• 10/29: Early Numbers Show Big Weekly Prize Results
• 10/28: Week 9 Early Value Picks 
• 10/28: Week 8 Results
• FYI: Notes About Picks We Highlight
• FYI: About Our Pick’em Pool Advice

Monday, Nov. 3

Cowboys Line Movement on MNF

The Cowboys were -2.5 earlier in the week, and we flagged Arizona as a value play when that was the case. The line has since moved to Dallas -3.5, which makes the Cowboys more appealing for spread pools that have a locked line at -2.5. It also drives down the implied win odds for Arizona, thus making them a riskier choice in game-winner pools.

With the new number in mind, reassess your risk/reward in both spread and game-winner formats.

Also note that QB Jacoby Brissett will start for Arizona instead of Kyler Murray. Brissett has played well lately, and the line did not initially move when that news came out on Saturday.

Sunday, Nov. 2

Sunday Rooting Rundown

Our pick recommendations can be for different teams for different types of pools. What we recommend in a season-long can differ from what we recommend in a weekly contest, and spread pools can be a different beast. Even in spread pools, you may have a different pick recommendation than our general numbers, because of the specific numbers available in your pool.

This Week 9 rooting guide offers a general overview of our pick recommendations, and individual results may vary.