Week 6 Football Pick’em Contest Strategy & Advice (2025)

Expert Week 6 NFL pick’em advice with top value picks, key insights, and when to fade the favorites to gain an edge.

by Spencer Limbach - Oct 12, 2025

We’re back with a fresh strategy guide for Week 6. This column pairs with our Football Pick’em Picks product, which combines public pick-popularity data with advanced modeling to highlight the smartest plays for your pool.

Each week, we’ll break down practical tactics for NFL and college pick’em and explain the why behind our key recommendations — especially when the data points to a contrarian angle.

This article will be updated throughout the week with new insights, injury news, and late-breaking notes. Here’s what’s included so far:

• 10/12: Sunday Rooting Rundown
• 10/10: CFB Update for Week 7
• 10/9: NFL Picks Show for Week 6
• 10/9: Eagles-Giants on Thursday Night Football
• 10/8: Chiefs are Least Popular Betting Favorite in Spread Pools
• 10/7: Early Value Picks Week 6
• 10/7:Week 5 Results
• FYI: Notes About Picks We Highlight
• FYI: About Our Pick’em Pool Advice

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Sunday 10/12

Sunday Rooting Rundown

Our pick recommendations can be for different teams for different types of pools. What we recommend in a season-long can differ from what we recommend in a weekly contest, and spread pools can be a different beast. Even in spread pools, you may have a different pick recommendation than our general numbers, because of the specific numbers available in your pool.

This Week 6 rooting guide offers a general overview of our pick recommendations, and individual results may vary.

We have another early morning game in London, with the Denver Broncos facing the New York Jets. We are heavily on Denver in game winner pools, but the opposite direction and almost entirely on the New York Jets with the spread of around a touchdown.

Here are the rest.

Game Winner

In season-long, you mostly have favorites. We do have three games with very low spreads. You are mostly getting Houston against Baltimore, and Carolina versus Miami. The NY Jets and Dallas Cowboys are close to an even split in our season long game winners.

In weekly contest prize pools, you will see the following dogs and close games featured more heavily:

• Carolina (64%)
• San Francisco (57%)
• New Orleans (32%)

It’s a week with some larger favorites, and we also have a very unpopular favorite in Kansas City that is being picked by the public like a big underdog, which allows us to take a differentiated pick there and not have to take as many upsets elsewhere.

 Spread Pools

Here are our top picks in season-long ATS pools, Max Profit picks by percentage, all at over 95% recommended:

• Cleveland (99.8%)
• Miami (99.8%)
• New York Jets (99.8%)
• Green Bay (99.5%)
• Carolina (99.4%)
• Tennessee (98.1%)
• Baltimore (97.7%)
• New Orleans (97.4%)
• Kansas City (95.2%)

And here are all those over 95% in weekly formats, where popularity influences more (those that did not appear on the season-long list are bolded):

• Carolina (99.9%)
• Cleveland (99.8%)
• Kansas City (99.8%)
• Miami (99.8%)
• New York Jets (99.7%)
• New Orleans (99.5%)
• Atlanta (98.8%)
• Green Bay (98.8%)
• Chicago (98.5%)
• Baltimore (96.6%)
• Tennessee (96.0%)
• San Francisco (95.1%)

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Friday, Oct. 10

CFB Update: Leverage Spots in Spread & Game Winner Pools

Looking at college football spread and game winner pools this week, several unpopular sides stand out, with teams getting minimal public backing for whatever reason. We’ll outline those instances in both contests below.

Spread Pools

Here are a few notable spots where the public is leaning heavily to one side based on current pick data: