Week 2 Football Pick’em Contest Strategy & Advice (2025)

The second week of the season is always "Overreaction Week". See how to turn this public bias into leverage for your Week 2 Football Pick’em pools.

by Jason Lisk - Sep 14, 2025

We’re back with updated strategy and advice for Week 2 of the 2025 season. This column serves as a complement to our Football Pick’em Picks product, which combines public pick popularity data with our modeling to recommend the best picks for your pool.

Each week, we’ll break down tactics to help you gain an edge in both NFL and college football pick’em contests. We’ll also explain the reasoning behind some of the picks our premium product may highlight — especially when the smart play goes against the grain.

This post will be updated throughout Week 2 with fresh insights and late-breaking notes. Here’s what’s available so far:

• 9/14: Sunday Rooting Rundown
• 9/12: Some Big CFB Value Favorites This Week
• 9/11: TNF: Packers-Commanders
• 9/10: Brock Purdy a Long Shot to Play This Week
• 9/10: Line Move in Atlanta-Minnesota
• 9/9: Week 2 Early Value Picks
• 9/9: Week 1 Results
• FYI: Notes About Picks We Highlight
• FYI: About Our Pick’em Pool Advice

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Sunday 9/14

Sunday Rooting Rundown

Our pick recommendations can be for different teams for different types of pools. What we recommend in a season-long can differ from what we recommend in a weekly contest, and spread pools can be a different beast. Even in spread pools, you may have a different pick recommendation than our general numbers, because of the specific numbers available in your pool.

This Week 2 rooting guide offers a general overview of our pick recommendations, and individual results may vary.

Game Winner

In season-long, you mostly have favorites. There are a couple of tight situations where we are breaking in different directions.

• Denver is a heavy pick in season-long as the slight favorite over the Colts, but that shifts completely in weekly (see below).
• Kansas City is a close call (49% vs. 51%) and with the odds so close we are actually heavier on the Chiefs even in season-long as a low-risk differentiator.

In weekly contest prize pools, you will see the following dogs and close games featured more heavily:

• Kansas City (99%)
• Indianapolis (95%)
• Seattle (72%)
• Jacksonville (70%)
• New Orleans (68%)

 Spread Pools

Here are our the top picks in season-long ATS pools, Max Profit picks by percentage, all at over 95% recommended:

• Jacksonville (99.8%)
• NY Giants (99.8%)
• Tennessee (99.7%)
• Atlanta (99.7%)
• New Orleans (98.7%)
• Las Vegas (98.3%)
• NY Jets (97.9%)
• Houston (97.3%)
• Carolina (96.4%)

And here are all those over 95% in weekly formats, where popularity influences more (those that did not appear on the season-long list are bolded):

• Jacksonville (100%)
• NY Giants (99.9%)
• New Orleans (99.8%)
• Las Vegas (99.7%)
• Tennessee (99.5%)
• NY Jets (99.3%)
• Chicago (99.2%)
• Carolina (99.1%)
• Houston (99.1%)
• Seattle (98.0%)
• Miami (97.3%)

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Friday 9/12

Some Big CFB Value Favorites This Week

We thought we would take a quick break and look at college football, as several extreme pick rate situations are resulting in some value favorites in college pools.

North Texas is a 6-point favorite against Washington State, but only 23% of the public is picking them to win. For some perspective on just how wild this pick rate is, the two favorites just above North Texas on the board, Notre Dame and Mississippi, both at -6.5, are at 81% and 94% pick popularity in game winner pools.

So, unless you think the oddsmakers have this dramatically wrong, this is an amazing leverage spot on the Mean Green.

In the other extreme leverage game, Kansas State has gotten off to a rough start this year. The Wildcats lost last week to Army at home, after opening their season with a loss in Ireland to Iowa State. Still, Kansas State is a 1.5-point favorite at Arizona, and only 20% of the public is picking the Wildcats from the Midwest over the Wildcats from the Southwest.

As far as upset picks, there is a really high leverage opportunity in the SEC. Vanderbilt is only a 3-point underdog at South Carolina, with 44% win odds, but only 9% of the public is picking the Commodores to win outright.

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Thursday 9/11

TNF: Packers vs. Commanders

The Packers enter this game as 3-point favorites after a strong Week 1 showing against Detroit, and in large season-long pools, it’s probably not worth overthinking: Green Bay is the side to take straight up.

Against the spread, though, Washington has all the ingredients to keep things close. The Commanders are a strong play at +3.5, and still a solid option at +3.0, especially if you’re looking to gain leverage on the field. Current data shows about 64% of the public backing Green Bay ATS, which adds value to siding with Washington.

It all comes down to your goals and knowing when to pick your spots against the public. Head over to our football pick’em product for further recommendations on this game and the rest of the Week 2 slate.

Tuesday 9/10

Brock Purdy a Long Shot to Play This Week

According to comments from San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan, QB Brock Purdy is a “a long shot” to play this week, and could miss multiple weeks.

Add in that TE George Kittle also went on IR, and WR Jauan Jennings is questionable with a shoulder injury, and it took San Francisco all of one week to fall apart with injuries again.

With the news San Francisco is down to a 3-point favorite (and it could move slightly further) on the road at New Orleans.

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Tuesday 9/10

Line Move in Atlanta-Minnesota

We saw a fairly sizable line jump in the Minnesota versus Atlanta matchup for Week 2. This line shot up to Minnesota -5.5 at some places on Tuesday, but that has reversed and come all the way back, and now the spread is 3.5 points.

Most of this may have been driven by early injury news. Atlanta WR Drake London suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday, and fellow starting WR Darnell Mooney missed Week 1 with a shoulder injury suffered in August.

Head Coach Raheem Morris expressed optimism that London could play. Both London and Mooney returned to practice on Tuesday.

With Atlanta down to a 3.5-point favorite, they could potentially be an upset pick in weekly pools. As of Tuesday, we are showing Atlanta projected to be picked at 18% in game winner pools.

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Tuesday 9/9

Week 2 Early Value Picks

Week 2 brings several matchups where public opinion is lopsided despite the odds being close to a toss-up. Those situations create leverage opportunities in both game-winner and pick’em pools. Here are some of the top early value spots:

1. Houston Texans (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Spread: -2.5 | Win Odds: 56% | Pick Popularity: 42%

These spots don’t come around often: a home favorite with more than half the win probability but far less than half the public support. Houston nearly stole a road win against the Rams before a late fumble sealed their fate. Tampa Bay edged out Atlanta on the road, but now heads into a tough spot against a stingy Texans’ defense in Houston’s home opener. Backing the favorite here still gives you leverage.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Spread: +1 | Win Odds: 49% | Pick Popularity: 32%

Kansas City lost to the Chargers in Brazil last week, and concerns about Patrick Mahomes’ supporting cast are driving the public away, especially with WR Rashee Rice suspended and WR Xavier Worthy banged up. The Eagles, meanwhile, took care of business in their opener against Dallas, though it was far from easy. Public reaction has tilted this line, but in what’s essentially a coin-flip game at Arrowhead Stadium, siding with Kansas City gives you meaningful leverage without sacrificing hardly anything in terms of win odds.

3. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Denver Broncos)

Spread: +2 | Win Odds: 47% | Pick Popularity: 32%

Are the Colts for real? Indianapolis impressed with a blowout win over Miami, yet the public still isn’t buying in. They’ll get a bigger test against Denver, who escaped Tennessee last week despite QB Bo Nix struggling for most of the game. If the Colts are steadier than expected, this is another spot where perception may lag reality, and where you can take advantage.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (at Cincinnati Bengals)

Spread: +3 | Win Odds: 41% | Pick Popularity: 21%

The Jaguars looked sharp on both sides of the ball in Week 1, while the Bengals needed turnovers and missed kicks to survive against Cleveland. With win odds north of 40% but only 20% of the public picking them, Jacksonville offers upset value on the road, in case what we saw in Week 1 turns out to be a reflection of how these teams will play.

5. Seattle Seahawks (at Pittsburgh Steelers)

Spread: +3 | Win Odds: 41% | Pick Popularity: 21%
Seattle’s offense sputtered against San Francisco, but the defense showed promise. The Steelers, meanwhile, survived thanks to special teams and some bounces going their way, despite being outplayed for stretches by the Jets. With both teams tough to judge off Week 1, Seattle is being underrated here. Another live underdog, and a useful leverage spot if you’re chasing.

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Tuesday 9/9

Week 1 Results

In Week 1, our recommendations performed well against the public. We connected on several tight matchups, including Tampa Bay’s comeback win, Indianapolis cruising past Miami, and Green Bay rolling against heavily backed Detroit.

The biggest setbacks came with Baltimore and Chicago blowing big leads in the primetime matchups, and the Giants (specifically in spread pools) — the Ravens let a winnable game slip away in Buffalo, Chicago did the same late against Minnesota, while New York offered little resistance against Washington. Still, it was a strong showing overall and a solid way to open the season.

Game Winner

In Week 1, our Pick’em recommendations held up well. The Max Profit options averaged 12.2 wins, compared to the public average of 10.7.

Much of that success came from success in tight games with spreads of three points or less. Our picks went 6-3 in those contests, highlighted by:

• Tampa Bay: staged a late comeback win on the road vs. the Falcons.

• Indianapolis: nearly a pick’em spread (-1), but they blew out Miami at home.

• Pittsburgh: ended up winning a wild road game against the Jets.

• Green Bay: recommended in many pools over heavily-backed Detroit and delivered a decisive win.

The two major letdowns were Baltimore, which collapsed late against Buffalo, and Chicago, which also had a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. The results in those two games likely kept an above-average week from being a massive one in terms of weekly prize rates.

Against the Spread

Our results in against-the-spread pools were also positive in Week 1. Our recommendations averaged 8.8 wins, above the public’s 8.3, while Max Profit ATS picks came in even higher at 9.7 wins.

Some standouts included the Chargers (+3), who won outright against the Chiefs in Brazil on Friday. We also recommended Cleveland (+5) in most pools, where only 25% of the public was on them, and Indianapolis (-1), another “fade the crowd” play where just 31% of the public had them.

On the downside, the Giants (+6) never had much of a chance, and 71% of the public picked the other side. Baltimore also failed to cover against Buffalo, with 65% of the public correctly backing the Bills. Chicago was the final costly non-cover in the final game, allowing the public to close the gap a bit on us late.

Still, it was a strong showing overall and an encouraging start to the NFL season. Let’s keep it going!

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FYI

Important Notes About the Picks We Highlight

Before diving into this week’s picks, keep a few things in mind:

• Pool context matters. Not every pick works for every contest. Strategy changes depending on your pool’s size, format, and prize structure. A move that makes sense in a large weekly pool could be the wrong play in a smaller, season-long competition.

• We focus on strategy, not just winners. Picking the team most likely to win isn’t always the smartest play. The real goal is to outscore your opponents. That often means targeting undervalued favorites or avoiding popular upset picks that offer little upside.

• Data can change quickly. Our write-ups use the latest win odds and public pick rates available when published. But those numbers shift — especially with injury news or line movement. When something major changes, we’ll update this article.

• For live, customized advice, use the product. Our Football Pick’em Picks product updates multiple times a day and adapts to your pool’s rules and opponents. You can see the latest data in the Data Grid, and once you generate custom picks for your pool, you can refresh them anytime through the My Pool Picks screen. Each refresh pulls in the most current numbers.

Check back here for updated notes, and use the product to make sure your final picks reflect the latest data.

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FYI

About Our Pick’em Pool Advice

Our Football Pick’em Picks product isn’t about one-size-fits-all advice — because the best pick always depends on your pool.

Factors like pool size, scoring format, season-long vs. weekly prizes, and even your current position in the standings all shape the smartest strategy. That’s why we built technology that analyzes your specific pool rules and generates customized recommendations.

As far as we know, we’re the only site delivering fully strategy-driven picks tailored to your exact format and goals. And the results speak for themselves: 74% of our subscribers report winning a prize in football pick’em contests each year.

Getting started is easy — set up your pool in just a few minutes, enter your rules, and let our system do the work.

This article will continue to highlight key strategy concepts and pick dynamics, but your best picks may look different — and that’s intentional. To get your real edge, use the product.

We hope you enjoy the insights here, and encourage you to explore more of our football pick’em strategy articles.