Week 1 Football Pick’em Contest Strategy & Advice (2026)
Expert tips and picks for Week 1 football pick’em contests, where the majority of the matchups in 2026 have a spread of a field goal or less.
by Jason Lisk - Sep 13, 2026
Hey look, the Dallas Cowboys are playing the Giants in Week 1 again!
We’ve officially launched our Football Pick’em Picks product for 2026, along with our opening strategy and advice column for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Each week in this space, we’ll highlight tactics to help you gain an edge in both NFL and college football pick’em contests. You’ll also get insight into the thinking behind some of the picks our premium product may recommend — especially those that go against the grain.
This post will be updated throughout the summer leading into the Week 1 games, so check back regularly for new sections and late-breaking pick notes. Here’s what’s available so far:
- 9/3: Week 1 Sunday AM Pick Overview
- 9/7: Week 1 Value Picks: Early Game Winner Leverage Plays
- 8/26: Minnesota has shifted to favorite role
- 5/29: Early Spreads and Matchups for Week 1
- FYI: Notes About Picks We Highlight
- FYI: About Our Pick’em Pool Advice
NFL Week 2 Picks 2026
Survivor & Pick’em
Sunday 9/3
Sunday AM Pick Overview
Here’s your Sunday AM Pick Overview, and some teams we have strong positions on in either game winner or spread pools.
Our season-long game winners should be heavily on the favorites. The only exceptions are that we are heavily on the Jets against the Titans as a very slight and unpopular underdog, and some entries may also be seeing Houston as the pick over Buffalo in season-long game winner.
Weekly Game Winner
The underdogs that move up the most in the weekly picks format are:
- Tennesee 97% of picks
- Houston 94%
- Carolina 76%
- NY Giants 72%
Spread Pools
In spread pools, we see the following as the most highly recommended across all pools. Just remember, individual results may vary depending on things like contest line.
| Team | ATS Max Profit |
|---|---|
| NY Jets | 99.9% |
| Arizona | 99.8% |
| Washington | 99.7% |
| Minnesota | 99.6% |
| Tampa Bay | 99.1% |
| Cleveland | 98.8% |
| New England | 98.5% |
| Indianapolis | 91.9% |
| Kansas City | 90.0% |
and here is the same for weekly ATS. where popularity impacts more:
| Team | Top Option |
|---|---|
| Cleveland | 99.6% |
| Arizona | 99.8% |
| Washington | 99.7% |
| New Orleans | 99.4% |
| Minnesota | 99.2% |
| Tampa Bay | 98.7% |
| New England | 98.4% |
| Indianapolis | 98.4% |
| Kansas City | 97.5% |
| Carolina | 97.7% |
| NY Jets | 95.1% |
| Miami | 91.2% |
| San Francisco | 90.3% |
Tuesday 9/7
Week 1 Value Picks: Early Game Winner Leverage Plays
Week 1 lines and Game Winner pick rates are pointing to some clear contrarian spots, the type that can help you find leverage against the pool in a weekly contest. Check the Data Grid through the week for line moves and shifting pick rates.
1. New York Jets (at Tennessee)
Spread: +1.5 | Win Odds: 46.6% (Vegas) / 51.0% (PG) | Pick Popularity: 24.5%
This is the rare spot where PG’s model likes a team to win outright that Vegas has as a slight underdog, yet fewer than one in four entries are on New York. Some of that is the emotional pull of the Robert Saleh revenge angle — the coach the Jets fired is now running the show in Nashville — but Tennessee is still installing a new system under a first-year staff. The odds, whether market or ours, put this one as close to a coin flip, while the public is breaking heavily toward the Titans.
2. Houston Texans (vs. Buffalo)
Spread: +1.5 | Win Odds: 48.3% (Vegas) / 47.5% (PG) | Pick Popularity: 23.7%
A near coin-flip game with only 23.7% of the public on Houston. Recency bias is doing a lot of work here — C.J. Stroud’s four-interception meltdown in the snow at New England is the freshest memory of him, but that was a different opponent in a different context. Against Buffalo specifically, the history actually favors Houston: the Bills haven’t won in Houston since 2006, and Josh Allen has his worst career numbers against any team he’s faced multiple times, when facing this tough Texans defense.
3. Minnesota Vikings (vs. Green Bay)
Spread: –1.5 | Win Odds: 52.5% (Vegas) / 54.1% (PG) | Pick Popularity: 33.0%
Minnesota is favored by both Vegas and the model, yet two-thirds of entries are still on Green Bay. The odds movement to Minnesota as favorite is likely accounting for two things: Micah Parsons is officially on the reserve/PUP list and is locked out for at least Green Bay’s first four games, and Minnesota enters with a new starter of its own, QB Kyler Murray, who beat out J.J. McCarthy for the job in August. That QB change is part of why the market moved toward the Vikings over the summer. A favored home team with a public split this wide is a clean value favorite.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver)
Spread: –2.5 | Win Odds: 56.9% (Vegas) / 58.9% (PG) | Pick Popularity: 46.0%
A value favorite: Kansas City is still the market’s pick to win, but pick popularity hasn’t caught all the way up yet, leaving some room before this becomes a crowded consensus play. The lingering public hesitation could trace to Patrick Mahomes’ ACL/LCL tear last December, which cost the Chiefs the season and let Denver take the division — but Mahomes has been a full camp participant with no setbacks, and the line itself reflects the market’s belief he’ll be under center. Denver’s gaudy record at 14-3 from a year ago is another factor that can swing the public to the opposite side from the market lean.
Wednesday 8/26
Minnesota Has Shifted to Favorite Role
We have had one shift in the favorites for NFL Week 1 in August so far. That is in the Minnesota-Green Bay game, where Minnesota is now a 1.5-point favorite, after Green Bay had opened as a similar short favorite earlier this year.
Kyler Murray was announced as the starting QB for Minnesota on August 11, the likely impetus for a shift of the point spread through zero. As a result, you are more likely to see Minnesota as a game winner pick in most of your pools … for now.
Friday 5/29
Early Spreads and Matchups for Week 1
Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season kicks off on Wednesday, September 9, with Seattle hosting New England in a Super Bowl rematch.
Week 1 includes what could be our first double-digit spread in the first week in seven years, if the numbers hold (Chargers vs. Cardinals). On the other hand, over half the matchups feature a spread of a field goal or less.
Some other highlights of Week 1:
- The season opens on Wednesday this year, for the first time.
- San Francisco and the Los Angeles Rams then play on Thursday, in a game that will be played in Melbourne, Australia.
- Green Bay plays at Minnesota in the late afternoon slot on Sunday, and it will be the third time in the last seven years the Packers open the year on the road against the Vikings.
- The Dallas Cowboys will be on Sunday Night Football, against the rival New York Giants, in John Harbaugh’s first game as the new head coach. If it feels like we’ve seen this before, this marks the eighth opening week game between these teams since 2012.
- We await official word on whether Patrick Mahomes will be cleared to start the season following his December knee injury, but Kansas City will host Denver on Monday Night Football to close the week.
Here is a table with all the Week 1 matchups and data.
| FAVORITE | HOME/AWAY | SPREAD | UNDERDOG | GAME DATE | WIN ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Chargers | Home | -10 | Arizona | Sunday, September 13 | 82% |
| Jacksonville | Home | -7.5 | Cleveland | Sunday, September 13 | 77% |
| Detroit | Home | -7 | New Orleans | Sunday, September 13 | 76% |
| Philadelphia | Home | -4.5 | Washington | Sunday, September 13 | 69% |
| Seattle | Home | -4.5 | New England | Wednesday, September 9 | 67% |
| Baltimore | Away | -4 | Indianapolis | Sunday, September 13 | 65% |
| Las Vegas | Home | -3.5 | Miami | Sunday, September 13 | 64% |
| Cincinnati | Home | -3 | Tampa Bay | Sunday, September 13 | 62% |
| Kansas City | Home | -3 | Denver | Monday, September 14 | 62% |
| LA Rams | Neutral | -3 | San Francisco | Thursday, September 10 | 60% |
| Chicago | Away | -2.5 | Carolina | Sunday, September 13 | 57% |
| Pittsburgh | Home | -2.5 | Atlanta | Sunday, September 13 | 56% |
| Tennessee | Home | -2.5 | NY Jets | Sunday, September 13 | 56% |
| Dallas | Away | -1.5 | NY Giants | Sunday, September 13 | 55% |
| Green Bay | Away | -1.5 | Minnesota | Sunday, September 13 | 53% |
| Buffalo | Away | -1.5 | Houston | Sunday, September 13 | 52% |
FYI
Important Notes About Picks We Highlight
A few things to keep in mind about the picks we highlight in this article:
-
Not all picks are right for all pools. Strategy depends on your pool’s size, format, and prize structure. A smart pick in a large weekly pool might be a poor choice in a small season-long contest.
-
We focus on strategy and value, not just who will win. The goal is to beat your opponents, not just pick winners. That often means identifying low-popularity favorites or fading trendy upset picks with low upside.
-
Data can shift before game time. We publish sections based on the most current win odds and pick popularity at the time, but those numbers can change — especially with injury news or line movement.
We’ll update this post if any major shifts occur. For the most up-to-date recommendations tailored to your pool, check out the Football Pick’em Picks product. It updates multiple times daily and adjusts for your specific rules and opponents.
You can see the latest information in the Data Grid.
After you generate customized picks for your pool, you can also update those pick recommendations whenever you want via the My Pool Picks screen. The updated picks will incorporate the most recent data we have.
FYI
About Our Pick’em Pool Advice
Our Football Pick’em Picks product doesn’t give one-size-fits-all advice — because the best pick depends on your pool.
Things like pool size, scoring rules, weekly vs. season-long prizes, and even your current standing all impact pick strategy. That’s why we built technology to analyze your specific pool settings and generate customized pick recommendations.
As far as we know, we’re still the only site offering fully strategy-driven picks tailored to your format and goals.
The result? 71% of our subscribers win a prize (season-long or weekly) in a football pick’em contest each year.
If you haven’t set up your pool in the product yet, you can do that in minutes — just enter your rules, and we’ll handle the rest.
While this article highlights key strategy and pick dynamics, your actual best picks may differ — and that’s by design. To get your edge, use the product.
We hope you enjoy reading, and we encourage you also to check out more of our football pick’em strategy articles.
NFL Week 2 Picks 2026
Survivor & Pick’em