Week 1 Football Pick’em Contest Strategy & Advice (2026)
Expert tips and picks for Week 1 football pick’em contests, where the majority of the matchups in 2026 have a spread of a field goal or less.
by Jason Lisk - May 29, 2026
Hey look, the Dallas Cowboys are playing the Giants in Week 1 again!
We’ve officially launched our Football Pick’em Picks product for 2026, along with our opening strategy and advice column for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Each week in this space, we’ll highlight tactics to help you gain an edge in both NFL and college football pick’em contests. You’ll also get insight into the thinking behind some of the picks our premium product may recommend — especially those that go against the grain.
This post will be updated throughout the summer leading into the Week 1 games, so check back regularly for new sections and late-breaking pick notes. Here’s what’s available so far:
- 5/29: Early Spreads and Matchups for Week 1
- FYI: Notes About Picks We Highlight
- FYI: About Our Pick’em Pool Advice
NFL Week 1 Picks 2026
Survivor & Pick’em
Friday 5/29
Early Spreads and Matchups for Week 1
Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season kicks off on Wednesday, September 9, with Seattle hosting New England in a Super Bowl rematch.
Week 1 includes what could be our first double-digit spread in the first week in seven years, if the numbers hold (Chargers vs. Cardinals). On the other hand, over half the matchups feature a spread of a field goal or less.
Some other highlights of Week 1:
- The season opens on Wednesday this year, for the first time.
- San Francisco and the Los Angeles Rams then play on Thursday, in a game that will be played in Melbourne, Australia.
- Green Bay plays at Minnesota in the late afternoon slot on Sunday, and it will be the third time in the last seven years the Packers open the year on the road against the Vikings.
- The Dallas Cowboys will be on Sunday Night Football, against the rival New York Giants, in John Harbaugh’s first game as the new head coach. If it feels like we’ve seen this before, this marks the eighth opening week game between these teams since 2012.
- We await official word on whether Patrick Mahomes will be cleared to start the season following his December knee injury, but Kansas City will host Denver on Monday Night Football to close the week.
Here is a table with all the Week 1 matchups and data.
| FAVORITE | HOME/AWAY | SPREAD | UNDERDOG | GAME DATE | WIN ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Chargers | Home | -10 | Arizona | Sunday, September 13 | 82% |
| Jacksonville | Home | -7.5 | Cleveland | Sunday, September 13 | 77% |
| Detroit | Home | -7 | New Orleans | Sunday, September 13 | 76% |
| Philadelphia | Home | -4.5 | Washington | Sunday, September 13 | 69% |
| Seattle | Home | -4.5 | New England | Wednesday, September 9 | 67% |
| Baltimore | Away | -4 | Indianapolis | Sunday, September 13 | 65% |
| Las Vegas | Home | -3.5 | Miami | Sunday, September 13 | 64% |
| Cincinnati | Home | -3 | Tampa Bay | Sunday, September 13 | 62% |
| Kansas City | Home | -3 | Denver | Monday, September 14 | 62% |
| LA Rams | Neutral | -3 | San Francisco | Thursday, September 10 | 60% |
| Chicago | Away | -2.5 | Carolina | Sunday, September 13 | 57% |
| Pittsburgh | Home | -2.5 | Atlanta | Sunday, September 13 | 56% |
| Tennessee | Home | -2.5 | NY Jets | Sunday, September 13 | 56% |
| Dallas | Away | -1.5 | NY Giants | Sunday, September 13 | 55% |
| Green Bay | Away | -1.5 | Minnesota | Sunday, September 13 | 53% |
| Buffalo | Away | -1.5 | Houston | Sunday, September 13 | 52% |
FYI
Important Notes About Picks We Highlight
A few things to keep in mind about the picks we highlight in this article:
-
Not all picks are right for all pools. Strategy depends on your pool’s size, format, and prize structure. A smart pick in a large weekly pool might be a poor choice in a small season-long contest.
-
We focus on strategy and value, not just who will win. The goal is to beat your opponents, not just pick winners. That often means identifying low-popularity favorites or fading trendy upset picks with low upside.
-
Data can shift before game time. We publish sections based on the most current win odds and pick popularity at the time, but those numbers can change — especially with injury news or line movement.
We’ll update this post if any major shifts occur. For the most up-to-date recommendations tailored to your pool, check out the Football Pick’em Picks product. It updates multiple times daily and adjusts for your specific rules and opponents.
You can see the latest information in the Data Grid.
After you generate customized picks for your pool, you can also update those pick recommendations whenever you want via the My Pool Picks screen. The updated picks will incorporate the most recent data we have.
FYI
About Our Pick’em Pool Advice
Our Football Pick’em Picks product doesn’t give one-size-fits-all advice — because the best pick depends on your pool.
Things like pool size, scoring rules, weekly vs. season-long prizes, and even your current standing all impact pick strategy. That’s why we built technology to analyze your specific pool settings and generate customized pick recommendations.
As far as we know, we’re still the only site offering fully strategy-driven picks tailored to your format and goals.
The result? 71% of our subscribers win a prize (season-long or weekly) in a football pick’em contest each year.
If you haven’t set up your pool in the product yet, you can do that in minutes — just enter your rules, and we’ll handle the rest.
While this article highlights key strategy and pick dynamics, your actual best picks may differ — and that’s by design. To get your edge, use the product.
We hope you enjoy reading, and we encourage you also to check out more of our football pick’em strategy articles.
NFL Week 1 Picks 2026
Survivor & Pick’em