Week 1 Football Pick’em Contest Strategy & Advice (2025)
Expert tips and picks for Week 1 football pick’em contests, where the majority of the matchups in 2025 have a spread of a field goal or less.
by Jason Lisk - Sep 5, 2025
Jalen Hurts will look to start your Week 1 with a win. (Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire)
We’ve officially launched our Football Pick’em Picks product for 2025, along with our opening strategy and advice column for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Each week in this space, we’ll highlight tactics to help you gain an edge in both NFL and college football pick’em contests. You’ll also get insight into the thinking behind some of the picks our premium product may recommend — especially those that go against the grain.
This post will be updated throughout Week 1, so check back regularly for new sections and late-breaking pick notes. Here’s what’s available so far:
- 9/7: Sunday Rooting Rundown
- 9/5: Chiefs-Chargers in Brazil
- 9/4: Season Starts Tonight with Eagles-Cowboys
- 8/29: Week 1 Early Value Picks
- 8/27: Saints QB Spencer Rattler is Last Week 1 QB Announced
- 8/20: Colts Now Favored, Name Daniel Jones Starting QB
- 8/12: Early Spreads and Matchups for Week 1
- FYI: Notes About Picks We Highlight
- FYI: About Our Pick’em Pool Advice
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Sunday 9/7
Sunday Rooting Rundown
Our pick recommendations can be for different teams for different types of pools. What we recommend in a season-long can differ from what we recommend in a weekly contest, and spread pools can be a different beast. Even in spread pools, you may have a different pick recommendation than our general numbers, because of the specific numbers available in your pool.
This rooting guide offers a general overview of where our picks have gone, and individual results may vary.
Game Winner
In season-long, you mostly have favorites. There are a couple of tight situations where we are breaking in different directions.
- Tampa Bay and Atlanta have been bouncing around a pick’em, with both favored depending on which book you check. Right now, Tampa Bay is the more common (71%) in game winner pools, although that could shift.
- Indianapolis is a heavy recommendation as a pick’em with Miami.
- Chicago is the slight dog on Monday Night, but over 50% in our models, so they are heavily picked (92% of game winner)
In weekly contest prize pools, you will see the following dogs and close games featured more heavily, in addition to the teams listed above:
- Seattle (82%)
- NY Jets (81%)
- Atlanta (81%) – popularity is swinging this toss-up toward Atlanta in weekly contests.
- Houston (67%)
- Las Vegas (60%)
Spread Pools
Here are our top six most common in season-long ATS pools, Max Profit picks by percentage:
- Chicago (99.9%)
- Cleveland (99.9%)
- NY Giants (99.9%)
- Arizona (87.6%)
- Tampa Bay (84.1%)
- Las Vegas (83.9%)
And here are the top six (plus others over 95%) in weekly formats, where popularity influences more:
- Chicago (99.9%)
- Cleveland (99.9%)
- NY Giants (99.9%)
- NY Jets (99.4%)
- Seattle (98.7%)
- Tennessee (98.7%)
- Las Vegas (98.5%)
- Indianapolis (96.8%)
- Houston (95.3%)
Friday 9/5
Chiefs-Chargers in Brazil
Since the Chargers moved back to Los Angeles for the 2017 season, they are 0-7 at home against the Chiefs and 2-5 ATS in those games. So why not try a “home game” in a different hemisphere?
The Chargers and Chiefs have traveled to Sao Paulo, Brazil, to open the season in an AFC West showdown.
Kansas City is a 3-point favorite on the neutral field against the Chargers, with 60% win odds. Kansas City is fairly popular in both game winner and spread pools.
So you are likely to see Kansas City as the pick in season-long game winners. In weekly game winner pools, there is a mix, though the Chargers are showing up on a fair number of entry recommendations.
Meanwhile, in spread pools, our picks are leaning more heavily toward the Chargers. Many pools set this line at 3.5, so you are getting a key number in many cases. Even at +3, we are giving a lean to the Chargers, especially in weekly pools where the lower popularity matters.
Thursday 9/4
Season Starts Tonight with Eagles-Cowboys
Thursday Night Football starts with a big NFC East rivalry. The Eagles are a heavy favorite of 8.5 points, coming off their Super Bowl win. Dallas is a team with a lot of question marks. The defense has major concerns after trading away its best player, Micah Parsons, just before the season.
You don’t want to overthink when playing in game winner pools. The Eagles have a 79% chance to win, so pick them out of the gate. In spread pools, there is more of a debate. The Eagles are a really popular pick this week, and it is a larger line. In weekly spread contests, starting out with Dallas is under consideration to go against the crowd and try to gain some immediate leverage.
Friday 8/29
Week 1 Early Value Picks
Week 1 features several near-coin-flip matchups where public pick rates are leaning heavily to one side. That creates value opportunities on the less popular teams.
Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions)
Spread: -2.5 | Win Odds: 56% | Pick Popularity: 28%
Green Bay is a small home favorite against Detroit, yet the public is piling on the Lions after last year’s 15-2 season.
The Packers recently traded for DE Micah Parsons, addressing their pass-rush need. The line ticked up after the deal but has held under a field goal throughout the summer.
With most of the field backing Detroit, taking the favorite Packers offers strong leverage to start the season.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami Dolphins)
Spread: -1 | Win Odds: 52% | Pick Popularity: 24%
The Colts are a slight home favorite, but the public is leaning toward Miami. Daniel Jones starts at QB for Indianapolis, while the Dolphins’ status hinges partly on whether RB De’Von Achane is ready after a preseason calf injury (he is currently expected to play).
With sentiment against the line, the Colts are a solid leverage play in what projects as a toss-up.
Chicago Bears (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
Spread: +2 | Win Odds: 54% | Pick Popularity: 24%
The Monday Night matchup is one of the week’s most pivotal. The Vikings, off a 14-3 season, are heavily favored by the public. Chicago opens with new HC Ben Johnson, while QB Caleb Williams looks to rebound from a rocky rookie year. Minnesota turns to J.J. McCarthy, returning from a knee injury that wiped out 2024.
Our models give the underdog Bears a slight edge. In weekly pools, this game is a swing spot: block the Vikings if ahead, or use the Bears as a high-leverage play if chasing.
Houston Texans (at Los Angeles Rams)
Spread: +3 | Win Odds: 43% | Pick Popularity: 24%
Houston visits Los Angeles in a clash of 2024 playoff teams. Rams QB Matthew Stafford missed most of camp with a back issue but is expected to start.
The line is tight, yet the public favors the Rams roughly 3-to-1. That gives the Texans value as a live underdog.
Baltimore Ravens (at Buffalo Bills)
Spread: PK | Win Odds: 48% | Pick Popularity: 31%
The Sunday Night spotlight features two AFC contenders. Baltimore and Buffalo split last year’s meetings: the Ravens dominated in the regular season before the Bills answered in the Divisional Round.
The spread is the week’s smallest, currently as a pick’em in several spots, but Buffalo is drawing nearly 70% of picks. That imbalance makes the Ravens a high-value contrarian choice, especially with this primetime matchup likely deciding Week 1 outcomes in many pools.
Wednesday 8/27
Saints QB Spencer Rattler is Last Week 1 QB Announced
We now know the projected starting quarterback for all 32 NFL teams for Week 1. New Orleans was the last team to make an announcement, and new head coach Kellen Moore is going with second-year QB Spencer Rattler over rookie Tyler Shough for the opener.
Rattler was not very good last year in relief of Derek Carr. He made six starts, going 0-6, averaging 5.8 yards per attempt, and the team averaged under 13 points a game in those starts. We’ll see how long he lasts as the starter. The line in the Arizona vs. New Orleans is up to Arizona -6.5 points, with 75% win odds for the Cardinals.
Wednesday 8/20
Colts Now Favored, Name Daniel Jones Starting QB
The Indianapolis Colts have gone from a pick’em eight days ago, to now favored by 1.5 points. The team has also officially named Daniel Jones as the Week 1 starting QB over Anthony Richardson.
Miami, meanwhile, has a question mark with running back De’Von Achane, nursing a soft tissue injury. If he doesn’t practice by next week his status for the opener becomes more uncertain.
That game was the shortest spread on the board eight days ago, and is likely going to be one of the swing games in weekly contests.
Meanwhile, we have seen slight half-point shifts. The most impactful are in New England, where the Patriots have dropped under the key number to -2.5 against Las Vegas, and in Jacksonville, where the Jaguars have moved to -3 against the Panthers.
Tuesday 8/12
Early Spreads and Matchups for Week 1
Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season kicks off on Thursday, September 4, with Philadelphia hosting Dallas in the first game. As usual, Week 1 spreads feature a mix of clarity at the top and uncertainty throughout the middle of the slate.
Only five favorites have win odds over 60% right now for Week 1. That means the vast majority of contests are closer to toss-up type games, where we will want to pay closer attention to pick popularity to see where the best leverage is to increase our chances in the weekly contests. 11 of the 16 matchups have a current spread of a field goal or smaller.
We also close the week with two tight primetime matchups: Buffalo vs. Baltimore, and Chicago hosting Minnesota. The Bills are a one-point home favorite against the Ravens, while Minnesota has moved to a two-point favorite at Chicago on Monday Night Football (that one was at a pick’em at many books a few weeks ago). With two near-toss-up games to close the week, there could be a lot on the line in weekly pick’em contests late.
Here is a table with all the Week 1 matchups and data.
| Favorite | Home/Away | Spread | Underdog | Game Date | Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | Home | -7.5 | Tennessee | Sunday, September 7 | 77% |
| Philadelphia | Home | -7 | Dallas | Thursday, September 4 | 73% |
| Washington | Home | -6.5 | NY Giants | Sunday, September 7 | 71% |
| Arizona | Away | -6 | New Orleans | Sunday, September 7 | 69% |
| Cincinnati | Away | -5.5 | Cleveland | Sunday, September 7 | 69% |
| Pittsburgh | Away | -3 | NY Jets | Sunday, September 7 | 60% |
| New England | Home | -3 | Las Vegas | Sunday, September 7 | 59% |
| Kansas City | Neutral | -3 | LA Chargers | Friday, September 5 | 62% |
| LA Rams | Home | -2.5 | Houston | Sunday, September 7 | 56% |
| Jacksonville | Home | -2.5 | Carolina | Sunday, September 7 | 57% |
| San Francisco | Away | -2 | Seattle | Sunday, September 7 | 56% |
| Green Bay | Home | -2 | Detroit | Sunday, September 7 | 53% |
| Minnesota | Away | -2 | Chicago | Monday, September 8 | 55% |
| Tampa Bay | Away | -1.5 | Atlanta | Sunday, September 7 | 55% |
| Buffalo | Home | -1 | Baltimore | Sunday, September 7 | 51% |
| Indianapolis | Home | PK | Miami | Sunday, September 7 | 51% |
FYI
Important Notes About Picks We Highlight
A few things to keep in mind about the picks we highlight in this article:
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Not all picks are right for all pools. Strategy depends on your pool’s size, format, and prize structure. A smart pick in a large weekly pool might be a poor choice in a small season-long contest.
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We focus on strategy and value, not just who will win. The goal is to beat your opponents, not just pick winners. That often means identifying low-popularity favorites or fading trendy upset picks with low upside.
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Data can shift before game time. We publish sections based on the most current win odds and pick popularity at the time, but those numbers can change — especially with injury news or line movement.
We’ll update this post if any major shifts occur. For the most up-to-date recommendations tailored to your pool, check out the Football Pick’em Picks product. It updates multiple times daily and adjusts for your specific rules and opponents.
You can see the latest information in the Data Grid.
After you generate customized picks for your pool, you can also update those pick recommendations whenever you want via the My Pool Picks screen. The updated picks will incorporate the most recent data we have.
FYI
About Our Pick’em Pool Advice
Our Football Pick’em Picks product doesn’t give one-size-fits-all advice — because the best pick depends on your pool.
Things like pool size, scoring rules, weekly vs. season-long prizes, and even your current standing all impact pick strategy. That’s why we built technology to analyze your specific pool settings and generate customized pick recommendations.
As far as we know, we’re still the only site offering fully strategy-driven picks tailored to your format and goals.
The result? 74% of our subscribers win a prize (season-long or weekly) in a football pick’em contest each year.
If you haven’t set up your pool in the product yet, you can do that in minutes — just enter your rules, and we’ll handle the rest.
While this article highlights key strategy and pick dynamics, your actual best picks may differ — and that’s by design. To get your edge, use the product.
We hope you enjoy reading, and we encourage you also to check out more of our football pick’em strategy articles.
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