NFL Playoffs Pick’em Pool Picks & Advice (2026)

Picks, advice, and analysis for 2025-26 NFL playoffs pools and pick'em contests, from the Wild Card Round to the Super Bowl.

by Jason Lisk - Jan 21, 2026

(Photo by Matthew Huang/Icon Sportswire)

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SUPER BOWL CONTENT

The Super Bowl is here, which means there’s only one game remaining in playoff pick’em pools. Here are the updates and plan for the Super Bowl:

• Mon, Jan. 26: Super Bowl Matchup and Spread
• Fri, Jan. 30: Super Bowl Pick Popularity Data
• Tue, Feb. 3: Game Winner Super Bowl Strategy
• Wed, Feb 4: Spread Pool Super Bowl Strategy

With the two weeks between championship games and the Super Bowl, limited choices, and other commitments this week, our full analysis will come in the week before the game. If you have any strategy questions after reading, please drop them in our Discord.

Monday 1/26

2025 Super Bowl Matchup, Spread and Total

Seattle and New England are both back on the sport’s biggest stage after missing the playoffs a year ago.

Seattle comes in as the favorite after beating the Rams in a matchup between our two highest-rated teams. New England earned its spot by grinding out a win in snowy conditions in Denver.

• Spread: SEA -5
• Win odds: SEA 68%, NE 32%
• Total: 46.0

We’ll share pick popularity data later this week to show how the public is selecting the big game.

Friday 1/30

2025 Super Bowl Pick Popularity Data

Here are pick popularity numbers in game-winner and spread pools:

Game-Winner

• Seattle, 68 percent win odds, 79 percent popularity
• New England, 32 percent win odds, 21 percent popularity

Spread Pools

• Seattle, 48 percent cover odds (at -5), 71 percent popularity
• New England, 52 percent cover odds (at +5), 29 percent popularity

Seattle is favored by over a field goal, and the public is leaning more heavily on Seattle in both game winner and spread pools.

Related: You can see our Super Bowl 60 Picks article for our complete analysis on the Spread, Total, and Moneyline. 

Wednesday 2/3

Game-Winner Pool Strategy

We are down to the final game, so you only have to make one decision: Seattle or New England?

Seattle is the 5-point favorite, and its odds to win exceed 2-to-1 (about 68%). That means that you almost certainly want to lean toward Seattle when in a good position to do so, based on your standings, but want to go with the upset if trying to move up.

Fixed Points (all entries get same points for a win)

Nearly 80% of entries are picking Seattle outright, well above their implied win odds. That means we need to consider the standings and what is possible, and use the popularity discrepancy to our advantage. We’ll run through those situations below:

If You Are Tied for Lead in a Larger Group

If you are part of a larger group tied for the lead, your best chance to maintain your positioning at the top is to take Seattle. However, depending on your payout scenarios, you could consider an upset play if the payoff was good enough. In practice, you should assume that most entries tied for first will pick Seattle, mirroring the overall public trend.

With 10 entries, picking New England would be an attempt to secure a two-way split for 1st via the upset, rather than an eight-way split. Let the relative payouts and downside risk of dropping behind the others you are with guide you here.

If you are tied for the lead with one or two others, just take Seattle. If any of the others pick the upset, you are in a good situation, and if they do not, you would still not have gained any relative EV by switching to the upset yourself.

If you are alone in the lead, it’s a no-brainer: take Seattle.

If You Lead by One with a Large Pack Behind

If you lead alone but one win ahead of a larger group, again, take Seattle. Block as many as you can and give yourself the best chance of winning.

If You Are One Back

Take New England, unless there is a group behind you that can all tie you, and the relative upside of getting a tie for first isn’t worth the downside of dropping down in a larger tie with a group trailing you by one. If you think the upside of finishing first isn’t worth it, just stick with Seattle.

Confidence Pools

If you are in a confidence pool, you are likewise limited to one remaining spot. You should see how many can catch you (a) if you score zero and the others get the remaining points, and (b) how many you can pass if you get points and others do not.

Seattle is the clear pick when leading, and will be popular. You should assume any entry that is ahead of you in current points, and can beat you if they get their final pick right, will take Seattle.

Let the number of entries that can catch you (if you lose and they win) dictate how you pick. If you are in the money, you may want to block others. But if you can still surpass others to a better prize spot, you will want to take the underdog and unpopular New England.

If you have specific questions on confidence point scenarios, feel free to drop them in our Discord.

Wednesday 2/4

Spread Pools Strategy

Our current spread shows Seattle at -4.5, and it has bounced between that number and -5 over the last week. Seattle is also the more popular side against the number,  at 71%. Our models are fairly neutral at -4.5/+4.5, and have a slight lean to New England (52%) at +5.

If you are an all-access or betting subscriber, you can also see our full write-up and analysis of the spread and totals picks for the Super Bowl.

As far as pool strategy goes, given their popularity in Seattle, you will want to take them if you are leading. If you are trailing or part of a large group tied for first, there is value in taking New England at a lower popularity.

Over/Under Pick Strategy

If your pool also uses over/unders, the public is heavier on the Over, with more than 70% of picks taking that side. This is not unusual for Overs.

Our current consensus line is 45.5. Our models favor the Over (53% for Ensemble Forecast; 57% for Similar Games).

We also laid out the analysis, based on how Super Bowls have performed given matchup factors and team characteristics, supporting our Over bet.

If you are in a leading position, you should take the Over because blocking more than 70% of the pool is true, whether we think it should be 47% to cover or 53%.

If you are trailing, do the opposite, which means taking the unpopular side. You need to make the pick most likely to keep you from being duplicated.

Related: Check out our Super Bowl Prop Bets article, which outlines our favorite bets from player props, game props, MVP markets, and more. 

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK CONTENT

• Mon, Jan. 19: Conf. Champ Matchups and Spreads
• Tue, Jan. 20: Round-By-Round Advancement Odds
• Wed, Jan. 21: Champ Game Pick Popularity
• Wed, Jan. 21: Game-Winner Pick Strategy
• Thu, Jan. 22: Spread Pool Pick Strategy
• Thu, Jan. 22: Over/Under Pick Strategy
• Thu, Jan. 22: Advice for Confidence Pools

Monday 1/19

2026 Conference Championship Matchups and Spreads

Here are the Conference Championship matchups, listed in descending order of spread, and our projected win odds:

• AFC: New England (-4.5) at Denver, 69% win odds
• NFC: Seattle (-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams, 58% win odds

The Over/Under is 47.5 in the NFC Championship game, and 41.5 in the AFC Championship game. Bo Nix’s season-ending injury has swung the odds in the AFC game quite a bit, as Jarrett Stidham will be starting at QB for Denver.

Check the Conference Championship Week schedule for when additional content will be released, including pick popularity numbers and pick strategies for various pool types.

Tuesday 1/20

Championship Game Advancement Odds

Here are our advancement odds for the remaining playoff teams.