Pick’em Pool Pick Advice for 2025 NFL Playoff Pools

Picks, advice, and analysis for 2024-25 NFL playoffs pools and pick'em contests, from the Wild Card Round to the Super Bowl.

Could Buffalo and Detroit meet in the Super Bowl? (Steven King/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome to the PoolGenius pick strategy article for 2024-25 NFL playoff pick’em pools (and for pools that include both the regular season and playoffs). This premium article is available to subscribers with access to our Football Pick’em Picks product.

Because of the unique complexity of NFL playoff pick’em pools, our Football Pick’em Picks product does not provide customized, pool-specific pick recommendations for playoff pools like it does for regular-season pools.

Instead, this article provides our data-driven pick advice for playoff pick’em pools, from the Wild Card Round to the Super Bowl. We update it multiple times weekly throughout the playoffs, including news updates that will likely impact pick’em pool strategy.

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CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK CONTENT

• Mon, Jan. 20: Conf. Champ Matchups and Spreads
• Tue, Jan. 21: Round-By-Round Advancement Odds
• Wed, Jan. 22: Champ Game Pick Popularity
• Wed, Jan. 22: Game-Winner Pick Strategy
• Thu, Jan. 23: Spread Pool Pick Strategy
• Thu, Jan. 23: Over/Under Pick Strategy
• Thu, Jan. 23: Advice for Confidence Pools

Monday 1/20

2025 Conference Championship Matchups and Spreads

Here are the Conference Championship matchups, listed in descending order of spread, and our projected win odds:

• AFC: Kansas City (-2) vs. Buffalo, 53% win odds
• NFC: Philadelphia (-5.5) vs. Washington, 68% win odds

Both Over/Unders are currently at 48.0 points to start the week.

Check the Conference Championship Week schedule for when additional content is coming, including pick popularity numbers and pick strategy for various pool types.

Tuesday 1/21

Championship Game Advancement Odds

Here are our advancement odds for the remaining playoff teams.

Philadelphia has the best overall odds to win the Super Bowl because they are the biggest favorite this round. That offsets the fact that we project them as a slight underdog to either Buffalo or Kansas City in the Super Bowl if they advance.

Washington is the clear underdog, and the other three teams are each above 25% to win the title.

Wednesday 1/22

Championship Game Pick Popularity

Here are the win odds and pick popularity figures for the championship games.

Game-Winner Pools

• Philadelphia, 71% win odds, 58% pick popularity
• Kansas City, 53% win odds, 36% pick popularity

Spread Pools

• Philadelphia (-6) 51% cover odds, 44% pick popularity
• Kansas City (-1.5), 51% cover odds, 35% pick popularity

The public is on the underdogs this week. That holds true for game winner and against the spread pick’em pools. The public is picking the favorites at a lower rate than the win odds in game winner pools, and selecting both underdogs more often than the favorites in spread pools.

Wednesday 1/22

Game-Winner Pool Strategy

We are down to only four teams remaining, and three games to pick as we head to the conference championship games. Here’s our analysis of the games and pick strategy.

(The win odds and pick popularity are noted in the previous section).

Pick strategy when leading or tied

We would normally tell you to pick the favorites if leading. Generally speaking, those are going to be the most popular sides and give you the best chance of winning.

That is still the better strategy with the Philadelphia game. However, in the Kansas City-Buffalo game, it may depend on your exact position. The public data is showing that Buffalo is nearly twice as popular as Kansas City, and the win odds are closer to 50%. So there’s an argument for taking the underdog Bills if you think your opponent will also pick them.

If you are outright leading, that is probably the better blocking maneuver. However, in a tie situation, it’s a closer call — especially if there are multiple entries right behind you as well. You cannot cover or match everyone, so going with favored Kansas City is more justified.

Pick strategy when behind by one game (or tied with many entries)

If you are behind by one game, or in a big pileup: Kansas City is a good value favorite to consider.

You can actually stick with the two favorites for potential differentiation while giving you the best chance to go 2-0. Using our two pick popularity estimates for the two games, we estimate that only about 21% of all entries will pick both Philadelphia and Kansas City in game winner pools.

So if you are one game back (or tied with other entries), you can pick the two favorites and still be unique enough to make a move in a lot of pools.

Pick strategy when behind by two (or three games)

If you are two picks behind, you need to be correct on two picks (with three games left) that differ from your opponent. If you are behind three, then you must differ from the entry you are chasing on all three.

You should almost certainly take Kansas City in the AFC title game, as the least popular of the four teams in this round. Meanwhile, the value proposition on Washington is not ideal, but they are still the relatively less popular side to win in the NFC Championship game.

With this, you have a choice:

1. Pick Washington as the underdog and slightly less popular side, or
2. Pick Philadelphia, hope enough others around you pick Washington, get within one of the leader or prize spots, and then try to be different from those entries in the Super Bowl.

There is no great answer here. The leaders should pick Philadelphia, but there is no guarantee that is how they behave.

If you are down exactly three wins, then you don’t have much choice. It probably makes the most sense to pick Washington and hope the leaders behave rationally while taking Philadelphia.

Thursday 1/23

Spread Pools Strategy

Our current cover projections for the conference round:

• Philadelphia (-6) 49% cover odds, 44% pick popularity
• Kansas City (-1.5), 50% cover odds, 35% pick popularity

Our models are neutral on both games, but the public appears to be heavily backing Buffalo.

If you are leading or tied

In this case: take any line value.

For example, some pools may have opened Philadelphia at -5.5, so you should grab that extra half-point and take the Eagles.

Conversely, take the half-point on Washington if your contest line is -6.5 on that game. If it is right on -6, our numbers say the public is a little more likely to take the underdog, so that would mean a slight lean on the popular side, Washington, if protecting a lead.

As for the AFC game, Buffalo is notably more popular than Kansas City, so covering the popular position and picking Buffalo is the play.

If you are trailing or in a large group

If you are trailing, the reverse is true for the AFC Championship. You likely want to take the less popular side, Kansas City, and hope that the leaders are heavily on Buffalo.

You may also want to reject any line value (as that may increase the popularity of that pick in your specific pool) in either game, but particularly the NFC game where any line movement has more value (line moves in spreads under a field goal, like Kansas City-Buffalo, are a little less meaningful in altering the cover odds).

The concept here is similar to picking value upset picks in game-winner pools. You are willing to give up some cover odds to give yourself a chance to come back against the side more likely to be picked by leaders.

If in doubt, Philadelphia looks like the slightly less popular side and the one you should lean toward if trying to catch leaders.

The most important thing when trailing is to have as many picks on the opposite side of the entry you are chasing.

Thursday 1/23

Over/Under Picks

Several of you are in pick’em pools where you also pick against the over/under totals in the playoffs. If that’s the case, here’s where we stand on the totals for the two games.

• Washington-Philadelphia Under 47.5 (54.9% Under odds, 13% Under popularity)
• Buffalo-Kansas City Over 47.5 (51.8% Over odds, 80% Over popularity)

Our models have a stronger lean to the Under in the Washington-Philadelphia game, which is a very contrarian pick to the public.

As is usually the case, the public is on the Over, but that is exaggerated this week with both games at 80% or higher pick popularity on the Over.

You will want to let your place in the standings dictate that one. Here’s how it shakes out:

• In a leading position, you will want to go with the popular sides, which happens to be the Over in both games.
• In a trailing position, you will want to go contrarian and take both Unders.

But what if you are in the middle or part of a large group with several ties for the prize spots?

In this case, you could: 1) take the Under on our model pick in the NFC Championship game and 2) go with the public — and our model lean — on the Over in the AFC Championship game.

Thursday 1/23

Confidence-Point Pool Strategy

In confidence-point pools, your strategy with the final three picks comes down to your place in the standings. If you are leading, you should play conservatively. If you are trailing or in a large group where the outcome is still in doubt, you need to be contrarian.

Philadelphia vs. Washington is likely to be the biggest spread remaining. Even if Washington wins, we project that Buffalo or Kansas City would be favored by somewhere between 3.5 and 6 points on neutral ground in the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the AFC winner could be between a 1.5 and 3.5 point favorite against Philadelphia.

We gave differing advice last round based on your standings. However, the most common outcome if you followed our advice is something like:

• 13 on Baltimore, WC (W)
• 12 on Buffalo, WC (W)
• 11 on Detroit, DIV (L)
• 10 on Kansas City, DIV (W)
• 9 on Philadelphia (W)
• 8 on Philadelphia (W)
• 5 on LA Chargers (L)
• 3 on Tampa Bay (L)
• 2 on Minnesota (L)
• 1 on Baltimore or Buffalo (L or W)

That would leave the 4, 6, and 7-point plays. It would also result in about 52 or 53 points total so far.

Whether that performance is in or near a prize spot or not likely depends on if anyone in the pool picked Washington over Detroit or nailed multiple Wild Card upsets. It also depends on how that entry did on other picks.

If you followed our advice “when trailing” last week, you may have gotten fewer points on either Kansas City or Philadelphia. However, that means you still have a higher point slot available.

If you are clearly in a leading position 

Use the 7-point pick on Philadelphia, the biggest favorite of the weekend, and save the 6-point play for the Super Bowl. By win odds, you should use the 4-point play on Kansas City, but Buffalo is the more popular side, so to cover your opponents and how they might pick, you could consider Buffalo in that lowest-value slot instead.

If you are in contention but need to differentiate

Use your highest point slot on Kansas City, since they are both favored and unpopular. Save the middle point slot for the Super Bowl. Pick Philadelphia at the lowest point slot. It will also put you on the favorite list but perhaps less leveraged than others in the pool if there is an upset.

If you are clearly trailing 

Use your top point value on Kansas City (favorite, unpopular) and your next point value on Washington (underdog, less popular than Philadelphia).

You are basically playing for a Kansas City vs. Washington parlay here. They are the two less popular sides, and winning both would likely maximize your points if the leaders in your group behave in-line with our public pick data.

You are making this decision because there are only three games left, and you will be in trouble if you do not match the crowd. If both win, you might be in a good spot heading to the Super Bowl.

Of course, your specific pool situation may be different, so if you have a unique question, feel free to drop it in the Q&A Forum.

DIVISIONAL ROUND WEEK CONTENT

• Tue, Jan. 14: Matchups and Spreads
• Tue, Jan. 14: Round Advancement Odds
• Wed, Jan. 15: Pick Popularity
• Wed, Jan. 15: Game-Winner Pick Strategy
• Fri, Jan. 17: Spread Pool Pick Strategy
• Fri, Jan. 17: Advice for Confidence Pools

Tuesday 1/14

2025 Divisional Round Matchups and Spreads

Here are the divisional-round matchups, listed in descending order of spread and our projected win odds:

• Detroit (-9.5) vs. Washington, 81% win odds
• Kansas City (-9) vs. Houston, 80% win odds
• Philadelphia (-5.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams, 72% win odds
• Baltimore (-1) at Buffalo, 50% win odds

We will update with pick popularity data and pick analysis on Wednesday.

Tuesday 1/14

NFL Playoffs Round-By-Round Advancement Odds