Circa Survivor Week 8 Strategy & Picks (2025)

We cover Circa Survivor Week 8 strategy and picks, covering the most popular options and potential picks to consider, and also discuss Circa Grandissimo strategy.

by Jason Lisk - Oct 23, 2025

Week 7 brought a few close calls but very few exits. The only meaningful stumble came from the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were selected by 4.1% of the pool and ultimately accounted for 181 of the 203 total eliminations in the week.

That leaves 4,214 entries advancing to Week 8.

Looking ahead, the Colts are this week’s biggest favorite. They were also a pivotal play back in Week 5, which means availability varies: some entries still have them, others don’t. We’ll break down optimal paths for both scenarios: what to do if you do have the Colts and the smartest pivots if you don’t.

We’ll also share a brief Circa Grandissimo update, where the field has been whittled down to just 15 entries, and discuss how that context might tweak strategy.

Reminder: Our Circa Survivor Picks Product provides current-week data and projections, as well as future-week projections and other tools.

Circa Survivor Show: Week 8

Jason Lisk and Spencer Limbach break down Circa Survivor Picks and Strategy every week on the PoolGenius YouTube Channel.

Here’s the video for Week 8 (recorded Wednesday afternoon):

Circa Survivor Week 8: Projected Pick Popularity

Our Circa Survivor Data Grid currently projects the most popular Week 8 survivor picks as:

• Indianapolis Colts – 32%
• Atlanta Falcons – 26%
• Cincinnati Bengals – 17%
• New England Patriots – 9%
• Philadelphia Eagles – 5%
• Kansas City Chiefs – 5%
• Buffalo Bills – 4%
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 2%

We have an Indianapolis Colts team that is only available to 39% of the pool. We expect a large percentage of those who have them to use them, but that still caps their popularity this week.

Kansas City, the second-largest favorite, has moved up to a 12.5-point favorite with Washington QB Jayden Daniels ruled out. However, they also look to be an even higher-value play now on both Thanksgiving and Christmas, with continued uncertainty around Baltimore and Lamar Jackson (and how good or bad Cincinnati is with Joe Flacco at QB). The Dallas-Washington result last week shook things up, as that will be the return matchup on Christmas.

Add in that the Eagles also have holiday relevance as one of the bigger favorites on Thanksgiving, and the picks on both Kansas City and Philadelphia should be somewhat suppressed. Those have to go somewhere. We see Atlanta and Cincinnati as the choices that many will gravitate toward.

How Many Winners Should We Expect in 2025?

Each week, we’ll update this section with an Over/Under on the projected number of winners (or the projected finishing week if the contest looks likely to end before anyone reaches 20-0).

We have had the projection at 15.5 each of the last two weeks. We had two high survival weeks in a row, though to be fair, we also had some really big favorites. We are still bumping up the estimates to Over/Under of 20.5 winners as we enter Week 8.

That said, the way people have picked and how concentrated things could get in several weeks on some riskier options keeps us from pushing it much higher. Under 10 winners is still in play because there are going to be a lot of challenging weeks to come, including not only the holidays and the second set of picks on those same weeks, but also weeks like Week 10, Week 11, and Week 14.

This Week 8 schedule, with the Colts and Chiefs as heavier favorites at reasonable availability and moderate popularity, and several teams at a touchdown or more as favorites, is our highest projected survival rate week in a while.

Week 8 Projected Future Value

Our Future Value rankings (available in the Data Grid) show the following top teams entering Week 8:

1. Kansas City Chiefs

2. Detroit Lions

3. Baltimore Ravens

4. Green Bay Packers

5. Buffalo Bills

6. Los Angeles Rams

7. Denver Broncos

8. Seattle Seahawks

9. San Francisco 49ers

10. New England Patriots

Kansas City remains atop in Future Value, and now both of the two teams that project as holiday favorites twice are in the top two spots. After that, we have the Ravens, Packers, and Bills.

The Colts drop just outside the Top 10 because this week is now the present. The 49ers look like a team that has not been a Circa Survivor factor yet, but will be soon.

Circa Survivor Week 8 Strategy Breakdown

Instead of prescribing exact picks and who you must take, I will discuss reasonable options and arguments for picking them (as well as identify teams I think you should avoid for clear strategic reasons).

First, let’s get to my teams to avoid in Week 8.

Teams to Potentially Avoid in Week 8

Here are the teams I believe you should strategically avoid picking for Week 8: