Circa Survivor Week 7 Strategy & Picks (2025)

We run through Circa Survivor Week 7 strategy and picks, covering the most popular options and potential +EV spots worth considering.

by Jason Lisk - Oct 16, 2025

Can the Chiefs continue to find their JuJu? (Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)

Week 6 was a calm reset for Circa Survivor after the prior week’s chaos. Most entries clustered on the Green Bay Packers (favored by two touchdowns); they advanced, and the landmines outside of that were scarce. The one notable stumble came on Thursday Night Football with the Eagles, but only about 2% of entries were on them, so the damage was limited.

Circa Survivor Week 7 brings another double-digit favorite, the Kansas City Chiefs, with the added wrinkle that they also project as favorites on both Thanksgiving and Christmas. That holiday leverage matters.

In this piece, we explain how to navigate the burn versus save decision on the Chiefs, evaluate all plausible alternatives, and outline portfolio paths by pool risk tolerance plus availability. We also share a few Circa Grandissimo thoughts as that field has been narrowed down to only 15 remaining entries.

Reminder: Our Circa Survivor Picks Product is up and running! It provides current-week data and projections, as well as future-week projections and other tools.

Golf One And Done Picks 2026

Get an edge in your One And Done Pool with our customized picks and tools. Free access available.

Learn MoreGet Picks Now

Circa Survivor Show: Week 7

Jason Lisk and Spencer Limbach break down Circa Survivor Picks and Strategy every week on the PoolGenius YouTube Channel.

Here’s the video for Week 7 (recorded Wednesday afternoon):

Circa Survivor Week 7: Projected Pick Popularity

Our Circa Survivor Data Grid currently projects the most popular Week 7 survivor picks as:

• New England Patriots – 28%
• Kansas City Chiefs – 24%
• Chicago Bears – 20%
• Pittsburgh Steelers – 13%
• Denver Broncos – 8%
• Green Bay Packers – 2%
• Cleveland Browns – 2%

We have only five teams projected with over 2% popularity this week. Kansas City’s holiday status, as a projected favorite on both Thanksgiving and Christmas, is going to lower their number over what we are seeing in national data, which is pushing up toward the mid-40s in popularity. Considering that about half of the remaining entries have used Detroit (the other team that we currently project as a favorite on both holidays), that likely puts a boundary on how many will use Kansas City.

Still, the Chiefs are a big favorite, and this could be a high-value spot.

Chicago, New England, and Pittsburgh all should rise as a direct result of Kansas City’s holiday outlook. We project New England as the most popular overall this week, but it wouldn’t surprise us if Chicago also shot up.

How Many Winners Should We Expect in 2025?

Each week, we’ll update this section with an Over/Under on the projected number of winners (or the projected finishing week if the contest looks likely to end before anyone reaches 20-0).

Last week, we set the Over/Under number at 15.5 winners. We did not get many eliminations in Week 6, but it was also projected as a fairly high advance week with Green Bay as the most popular option and a big favorite. There are still the most challenging weeks to come, some of which we will highlight below.

Because of this, we will stick with that same Over/Under of 15.5 winners as we enter Week 7. 

Week 7 Projected Future Value

Our Future Value rankings (available in the Data Grid) show the following top 10 teams entering Week 7: