Circa Survivor Week 6 Strategy & Picks (2025)

We run through Circa Survivor Week 6 strategy and picks, covering the most popular options and potential +EV spots worth considering.

by Jason Lisk - Oct 9, 2025

The Packers should be the most popular Circa pick (Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

Well, craziness came to Circa Survivor last week. We had been progressing along with high survival rates through the first four weeks, but that changed with a vengeance.

It started on Thursday Night Football with the Rams losing to the 49ers in overtime in a game where they repeatedly made key errors at the wrong time. It continued on Sunday afternoon when Arizona blew a 21-3 lead with some of the most ridiculous plays you will see. (We wrote about the Worst NFL Survivor Beats since 2010, and you’ll be surprised to learn that it topped the list.)

Along the way, we also lost picks on favorites like the Bills, Seahawks, Chargers, Chiefs, and Eagles.

How crazy was this week? The Saints, who entered the week winless and drew less than 1% of picks, were the fourth-most common pick to advance to Week 6.

We will try to recover from the madness by providing analysis for Circa Survivor Week 6 and going forward to help those who made it through increase their chances to win the whole thing.

Reminder: Our Circa Survivor Picks Product is now for sale in 2025. It provides current-week data and projections, as well as future-week projections and other tools.

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How Many Winners Should We Expect in 2025?

Each week, we’ll update this section with an Over/Under on the projected number of winners (or the projected finishing week if the contest looks likely to end before anyone reaches 20-0).

Last week, we noted that Week 5 was likely to be a key week in how we projected the contest and the number of winners. We noted that it looked like one of the higher leverage weeks. Well, it turned out to be quite high leverage, as over 60% of the entries that entered the week did not come out alive.

We were at 26.5 winners projected last week, a number that had slowly risen in recent weeks as we had not had high eliminations.

How does this impact that? Well, of course, we are going to go back down. The fact that the Lions were heavily used to get through also impacts the future weeks.

Three of our six most valuable teams going forward have now been used by close to, or more than, half the surviving pool. Another (Green Bay) becomes a key player this week.

Each week, we project future win odds and pick popularity, which we can use to estimate survival odds and some ranges.

Using those as a guide, we project an Over/Under of 15.5 winners, which is lower than any of the last three weeks (but a little higher than our initial contest outlook before the season began).

We have 4,646 entries alive entering the week. We will also set an Over/Under of 400.5 entries that make it to the Thanksgiving pick week, and 110.5 that reach the Christmas picks.

By the way, that should tell you just how insane the closing three weeks of the contest could be, with tough weeks and limited options, if we expect over 100 entries to reach Christmas but still think the overall contest winner number is closer to 15.5.

Circa Survivor Show: Week 6

Jason Lisk and Spencer Limbach break down Circa Survivor Picks and Strategy every week on the PoolGenius YouTube Channel.

Here’s the video for Week 6 (recorded Wednesday afternoon):

Circa Survivor Week 6: Projected Pick Popularity

Our Circa Survivor Data Grid currently projects the five most popular Week 6 survivor picks as:

• Green Bay Packers – 42%
• Los Angeles Rams – 14%
• Philadelphia Eagles – 9%
• Las Vegas Raiders – 8%
• Pittsburgh Steelers – 7%

Unlike some recent weeks, when only about seven teams were projected for more than 1%, we do see some potential diversity in how entries could be picked if they do not use Green Bay.

Six other teams, Denver, Indianapolis, Washington, Dallas, the LA Chargers, and New England, are projected to be popular between 1% and 4%.

Week 6 Projected Future Value

Our Future Value rankings (available in the Data Grid) show the following top 10 teams entering Week 6: