Circa Survivor Week 5 Strategy & Picks (2025)

We run through Circa Survivor Week 5 strategy and picks, covering the most popular options and potential +EV spots worth considering.

by Jason Lisk - Oct 2, 2025

Another 10% of the pool was chopped last week, and Circa Survivor currently has 12,404 entries as we head into Week 5.

That leaves us with 66% of the original pool remaining. The five most popular picks all advanced in Week 4, and the biggest eliminations came with the Chargers’ loss at New York (5.7%) and the Packers’ tie against Dallas (3.5%). Other picks knocked out another 1%, led by San Francisco, Minnesota, and No Pick.

So far this year, the top 5 most popular picks in Circa have gone 18-2.

Now, we’ll turn to the Week 5 schedule and go through some strategy thoughts.

Reminder: Our Circa Survivor Picks Product is now for sale in 2025. It provides current-week data and projections, as well as future-week projections and other tools.

How Many Winners Should We Expect in 2025?

Each week, we’ll update this section with an Over/Under on the projected number of winners (or the projected finishing week if the contest looks likely to end before anyone reaches 20-0).

Last week, we kept the expected number of winners up to an Over/Under of 22.5. I’m going to move it slightly, up to 26.5. We still have 16 of the 20 pick weeks left. We did just get another relatively high survival week.

The Week 5 results, though, are going to be a big factor in where that goes. This looks like a high-leverage week where we could have picks mostly concentrated on four teams. The Cardinals and Colts should both be popular and have win odds under 80%, so the chances that one of them loses are actually fairly high.

Here’s a table that shows some data on weeks that show high potential for a shakeup. When we look at how concentrated picks are expected to be at the top, the overall expected survival rate, and the odds that one or both of the top two most popular lose.

Week	Top 2 Popularity	Avg Survival	Both Lose	1 of Top 2 Lose
Week 17A	68%	59%	12%	57%
Week 17B	40%	62%	11%	44%
Week 13A	82%	75%	4%	33%
Week 5	55%	75%	7%	45%
Week 13B	44%	68%	9%	42%
Week 9	73%	79%	3%	30%
Week 10	39%	65%	9%	42%

The two Week 17 picks are going to be really high leverage and have a lot of risk. Picks are likely to be concentrated heavily on two teams on Thanksgiving. The Week 13B slate, right after Thanksgiving, also has a low average expected advance rate.

But Week 5 looks like perhaps the highest leverage spot outside the holidays. You have picks likely concentrated at the top, some risk, and the potential for a wide range of outcomes.

So it will probably weigh heavily in the long-term outcome of the Circa Survivor contest for 2025.

Circa Survivor Week 5: Projected Pick Popularity

Our Circa Survivor Data Grid currently projects the five most popular Week 5 survivor picks as:

• Arizona Cardinals – 31%

• Indianapolis Colts – 23%

• Los Angeles Rams – 19%

• Detroit Lions – 15%

• Buffalo Bills – 5%

• Minnesota Vikings – 3%

• Seattle Seahawks – 3%

We do not project any other team to have over 1% popularity in the contest in Week 5.

Single-entry players and those with three or fewer entries actually have LESS Arizona available than the biggest portfolios. That will limit just how high Arizona can get, as it is at just under 47% available to the pool.

The Rams’ big line move is the biggest wild card. We are guessing that they are moving up boards, but it is a Thursday Night, and due to the San Francisco injuries, this spot was not on the radar before this week. If the Rams go up in popularity, it will probably have the most impact on Detroit and Indianapolis in terms of pick rate.

Week 5 Projected Future Value

Our Future Value rankings (available in the Data Grid) show the following top eight teams entering Week 5: