Circa Survivor Week 4 Strategy & Picks (2025)

Circa Survivor Week 4 has Buffalo and others on our minds. Full pick projections, portfolio strategy, and future value team insights.

by Jason Lisk - Sep 25, 2025

Will the Bills let James Cook cook against the Saints in Week 4 Survivor?

Last week, we finally eliminated a couple of the more popular teams in Circa Survivor. One of those involved no drama, while the other involved a pretty bizarre finish.

The Atlanta Falcons lost 30-0 to the Carolina Panthers, while Green Bay had a 10-0 lead late in the fourth quarter, but a late blocked game-winning field goal attempt for Green Bay turned into an unexpected opportunity for Cleveland, and they hit the long field goal. The Browns gained a total of 20 yards on their last two scoring drives to pull the big upset after an interception and a blocked kick.

Those results were the biggest, eliminating nearly 20% of the Circa pool. A total of 13,811 entries advanced to Week 4.

In this article, we’ll cover what to expect in the contest and some strategy thoughts for Week 4 picks.

Reminder: Our Circa Survivor Picks Product is now for sale for 2025, providing current week data and projections, as well as future week projections and other tools.

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How Many Winners Should We Expect in 2025?

Each week, we’ll update this section with an Over/Under on the projected number of winners (or the projected finishing week if the contest looks likely to end before anyone reaches 20-0).

Last week, we bumped the expected number of winners up to an Over/Under of 22.5.

With a weekly survival rate of 81%, which falls right about at the median for the contest over the last five years, we are not adjusting too much this week. There are still some really tough weeks ahead, and we are seeing a lot of haves and have-nots, which is going to make for risk for everyone as we get deeper into the season, with so many average teams and have-nots required to be considered for picks in the contest.

For a deeper discussion of contest survival rates and the range of outcomes, see last week’s article.

So this week’s estimate is still set at that 22.5 level.

Circa Survivor Week 4: Projected Pick Popularity

Our Circa Data Grid currently projects the five most popular Week 4 survivor picks as:

• Buffalo Bills – 32%

• Houston Texans – 24%

• Detroit Lions – 14%

• New England Patriots – 8%

• Denver Broncos – 7%

• Los Angeles Chargers – 7%

• Green Bay Packers – 4%

We do not project any other team to have over 1% popularity in the contest in Week 4.

Houston and New England will likely be more popular in Circa because of the future value savings on those two teams in a week when both are at 69% or higher win odds. Detroit will likely be below public pick data in general because of its presence on both holiday game schedules and high future value in general.

Buffalo has extremely high win odds but also lots of other potentially useful weeks at lower ownership, so you could see them close to the public pick rate and around 30%. Their availability (74%) somewhat limits them from going too high, as over half of all entries that have them would have to use them to go over 37%. With a lot of multi-entry players with greater than 5 entries left still in play, we will probably see a fair amount of contestants have some Bills, but not all Bills, this week.

The single-entry players may break more heavily on Buffalo.

Week 4 Projected Future Value

Our Future Value rankings (available in the Data Grid) show the following top eight teams entering Week 4: