Circa Survivor Week 2 Strategy & Picks (2025)

Circa Survivor Week 2 presents strategy questions on Baltimore. We start there to break down this week's popularity, future value, and portfolio approaches.

by Jason Lisk - Sep 11, 2025

The 2025 Circa Survivor Contest kicked off in intriguing fashion. Most entries advanced, but they did so using a wide variety of teams. That early path diversity, combined with the lack of upsets, could set up a very different season compared to last year, when a string of shocking losses wiped out large portions of the field and left many survivors holding similar teams heading into the second half.

This year’s contest closed with a record 18,718 entries, and 18,145 remain alive (96.9%). The most popular Week 1 picks were Denver (38.4%) and Arizona (22.3%), while New England (1.4%) accounted for the largest share of eliminations. All 32 teams were selected by at least one entry, so a few unlucky players bowed out with picks on the Saints, Titans, Browns, and Cowboys.

Below, we’ll break down the main Circa Survivor contest in detail, with a separate section at the bottom for some quick Circa Grandissimo thoughts.

New: Circa Survivor Picks Tool

We launched our Circa Survivor Picks Tool ahead of last week’s games and have been steadily adding new features since. Recent updates include a Multi-Entry Survival Tool and an expanded Data Grid with team availability, actual pick rates, and Expected Value columns once each week’s picks are announced, alongside our projections.

More upgrades are on the way, with additional features expected to go live before the Saturday pick deadline.

If you haven’t tried it yet, the product is free through this weekend. A paywall will soon be introduced, and we’ll update this article with full details once it’s in place.

How Many Winners Should We Expect in 2025?

Each week, we’ll update this section with an Over/Under on the projected number of winners (or the projected finishing week if the contest looks likely to end before anyone reaches 20-0).

Based on historical data and projected contest size, we opened with an initial Over/Under of 9.5 winners.

That number has since moved higher. Week 1 produced both a larger field than expected and an unusually high survival rate. With those factors in play, we’re adjusting this week’s estimate to an Over/Under of 12.5 winners for 2025 heading into Week 2.

Circa Survivor Week 2: Projected Pick Popularity

Our Circa Data Grid currently projects the five most popular Week 2 survivor picks as:

• Baltimore Ravens – 26%

• Arizona Cardinals – 19%

• Dallas Cowboys – 17%

• Los Angeles Rams – 12%

• Detroit Lions – 7%

How Popular Will Baltimore Be?

Baltimore’s projected pick rate is highly variable, and the final number could swing widely depending on how the week develops.

The Ravens could come in just below the national public pick rate of 32%, since they’re already projected as a strong favorite on Thanksgiving. On the flip side, with each entry costing $1,000 in Circa, players may lean heavily toward Baltimore as the week’s biggest favorite, especially if other options feel risky.

Comparing Past Thanksgiving Favorites

We reviewed the popularity figures for the “other” projected top Thanksgiving favorites in past years. This year, we expect Philadelphia to be the most popular choice on the Thanksgiving slate, with Baltimore profiling more like the typical second-most-popular option. Similar to:

• 2024 Detroit: Kansas City was the more popular play.

• 2022 & 2023 Dallas: Buffalo and Detroit drew the most picks.

• 2021 Buffalo: Dallas was the most popular option that year.

In the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving, when those teams had 10%+ public pick popularity, Circa entries were slightly less likely to back them. On average, the public pick rate was 24.2%, while Circa entries came in at 20.8%.

But there was plenty of variation around that. In some of the most popular spots for those teams, we saw three weeks where they were underpicked relative to public data, two weeks where they were near the public pick rate, and one that steamed way over (Dallas in 2022 at 49% in Circa in Week 10, when they ended up as a 10-point favorite on Thanksgiving).

Current Market Shifts

Injuries to San Francisco have also changed the dynamics. The 49ers were projected as a top-four option in preseason popularity for their matchup with the Saints, but those odds have collapsed, pushing more attention toward Baltimore.

Bottom Line

Baltimore’s pick rate could land anywhere from the low 20s to the mid-30s. If momentum builds and players shy away from alternatives, the Ravens could easily steam to the higher end of that range.

Week 2 Projected Future Value

Our Future Value rankings (available in the Data Grid) show the following top six teams entering Week 2:

1. Buffalo

2. Baltimore

3. Philadelphia

4. Kansas City

5. Green Bay

6. Denver

You might notice that the top two are in action this week as considerations, though we think the Bills being below a touchdown will hold their popularity down, since there are other options at lower future value and similar odds.

Green Bay is the other one that could be considered this week, in the Thursday opener, but their higher future value now, after the win against Detroit, probably pushes you toward a save.

Some of the biggest moves that matter in our Future Value rankings include:

• San Francisco DOWN to No. 8 (from No. 5) with the near-term injury issues reducing early week usage;
• LA Chargers UP to No. 13 (from No. 18) after a big win over KC and corresponding ratings increase;
• Jacksonville UP to No. 18 (from No. 25) after an impressive win over Carolina, now bringing a few weeks in as future options;
• New England DOWN to No. 21 (from No. 14) after the home loss to Las Vegas, lowering the bull case and potential usable weeks despite an easy schedule.

Circa Survivor Week 2 Strategy Breakdown

Instead of prescribing exact picks, let’s look at the case for each contender. I focus on teams favored by three or more points — riskier underdogs will show worse EV and survival odds. That’s especially true this week, where we have a really large favorite in Baltimore. You don’t want to come too far down the risk board, and you can find reasonable contrarian alternatives without dropping that far.

Let’s go through some pick thoughts and considerations for teams this week

Baltimore

• Popularity: Projected to be the most popular.

• Win odds: Strongest survival paths right now because of extremely high win odds (86%+).

• EV: Very high, unless the popularity gets extreme and moves well over 35%. They are also showing up as part of our Max EV paths, but those are more fragile

• Risk: Play on Thanksgiving and could be a great lower-owned favorite to leverage against Philadelphia there. Have lots of other future weeks of high value. Lose a lot of entry flexibility in the future, compared to getting through with someone else.

Arizona & Dallas

• Popularity: Likely to be the two most popular non-Baltimore picks and make up somewhere between 40-50% of all non-Baltimore picks.

• Lower Future Value: Both project as popular because they have lower future value than other options this week. Arizona is back again after being popular a week ago, while this is probably the most likely non-holiday spot you might consider Dallas. Note: The Cowboys play on both holidays as a dog, something we discussed here.

• Good Path Survival if Advance: Because of the lower future value, these teams set up entries with good future survival odds if you get through with them.

• Dallas Lower EV with Line Move: Dallas has seen a line move down with injury news, and at relatively higher popularity, has a fairly subpar EV.

Detroit & Los Angeles

• Similar Future Value: These teams are part of the upper middle class in future value, part of a big group outside the Top 6. But they are the type of teams you could choose to play now as contrarians to the three most popular, or save for some other weeks (Detroit includes some holidays, Rams as a big Week 9 favorite vs. Saints).

• EVs are not great, but it’s relative: In a vacuum, neither is a +EV pick this week because Baltimore is eating so much of the EV pie. But they are close to or better than some other options this week, including projected popularity for Dallas, which is near both in win odds.

• Probably not getting steamed up: We think the predictability of these teams in the contest is a little safer. They do not profile as the types of teams that will get steamed up. The variance is much higher in how people pick teams like Baltimore or Dallas this week.

Buffalo

• High Future Value: Buffalo has high future value, which makes saving them in a week where they aren’t a top favorite and do not have the best EV more of a consideration.

• Near-term utility: Buffalo is our top projected team by win odds in both Week 3 (vs. Miami), Week 4 (vs. New Orleans), and Week 5 (vs. New England). That Week 5 spot could feature the Circa public more concentrated on Minnesota vs. Cleveland or Tennessee vs. Arizona, setting up a better EV spot.

• Verdict: If you are looking to diversify your Buffalo use across multiple picks, this probably isn’t a top-three spot, even though they are second in EV.

LA Chargers, Minnesota, Cincinnati & Pittsburgh

• Middle-class future options: These teams are mostly in a middle tier where you are probably going to use them at some point if you need to go 20-0, and they will have similar (or perhaps better) utility at other points in the schedule from a pure survival standpoint. Pittsburgh is the one potential exception, as they currently are right near the cutline of our Top 20.

• Riskier win odds: These teams are in the lower 60% range in market win odds, meaning you are taking on about a 10% drop in odds to advance from some of the above options, and closer to 20% to 25% drop from Baltimore.

• True contrarian plays: These are projected lower-owned contrarian plays that allow you major Future Value savings versus Baltimore. The dream scenario for these picks (other than an outright massive Baltimore upset) is that multiple of the other semi-popular options take losses, and your entry advances while most of the surviving pool had to get through with Baltimore, giving you an edge going forward.

Green Bay & San Francisco

• Just as risky as the previous group, San Francisco’s injuries and Green Bay’s tough matchup with Washington make them both on the riskier side of the contrarian options.

• Too much Future Value: However, for their status as riskier contrarian low-owned picks, they have too much future value and project to have some higher EV spots later in the year, so they are a save for us.

Week 2 Portfolio Strategies

Do we think Baltimore is in play as a pick? Absolutely.

Would we want to fire the majority of our entries on them? Probably not.

They have so much future utility that it is fine to take some shots now if you want, but also save them in most scenarios, because between Thanksgiving and some other weeks, they are going to have a high EV in multiple spots.

If you wanted to be riskier with your overall portfolio and just avoid popular Baltimore, that is reasonable, too, in a contest where the Thanksgiving pick could be a difference maker. Those late weeks, if you get through and have Baltimore available, could be huge.

There are some themes you could use when making a portfolio of picks. The ideal this week is somewhere between 2 and 4 total teams across 10 entries (and only 4 if, say, you weren’t evenly distributed across them and were taking your shots to get some through with Baltimore available).

Strategy 1: Future Value Saver

Eat the Arizona and Dallas future value savings up on the semi-popular options and hope to get both through and have valuable entries. Maybe add a third at the back-end for diversity, or just go with those.

Strategy 2: Pick One, Fade the Other

In this scenario, you are taking a stand on one of Arizona or Dallas, but not on both, because you want to benefit if the upset you stayed off occurs. So you pick one, fade the other, and add some other options like the Rams or Lions.

Strategy 3: Fade the Popular Future Value Duo

Here, you play on an upset of Dallas or Arizona, as by market odds, there is a 49% chance that at least one of them loses.  You can use the Lions, Rams, and/or some of those riskier other contrarian plays we mentioned above.

You could use Baltimore as a supplement to all of these strategies, as a third team in a trio. I would probably be least likely to do that, though, if picking both Arizona and Dallas in the “Future Value Saver” category. I wouldn’t want to be on all three of the popular picks in one portfolio and try to take a stand against one of them somewhere.

You can now use our Multi-Entry Survival tool to play around with different combinations of using up to four different teams to see what scenarios and distributions you like best.

Circa Grandissimo Week 2 Thoughts

The Circa Grandissimo is a high-stakes survivor pool with an entry fee of $100,000. There were 69 entries in Year 1, and all of them survived Week 1. On top of that, just over half of them (35) did so by picking the Denver Broncos.

Future Value in a Smaller Contest

While it is true that Future Value matters a little less in this contest, as it may not get to December, preserving teams that can give you massive leverage against the pool will still be the type of behavior that can win a pool like this. At least based on one week of evidence, when having just one (or at most two) entries, and having those entries be worth six figures, a lot of people gravitated to the biggest favorite in numbers far greater than our public pick data.

Baltimore or Not in Grandissimo?

For my poker analogy, you want to be a little tighter in the starting hands you use (or how far down the list of teams you go), but you also do not want to play scared. If popular picks are going to be far more popular as contestants tighten up, being opposite them will provide an even better edge.

If 50% of the pool is on Baltimore, they will have an EV of only about 1.04 according to our EV Calculator. That would drop below Buffalo and be only slightly above other options like Arizona, Detroit, and the LA Rams. When you add in that the majority of the pool would then not have Baltimore, there is the potential for a future massive EV spot for anyone who gets through without Baltimore in this contest.

What About Buffalo?

We probably wouldn’t use Buffalo (I think they are too valuable in this contest for any of the Weeks 2 to 5), but the other teams on the board are in play, especially if you think Baltimore will get steamed up close to 50% in this pool.