Circa Survivor Thanksgiving and Week 13 Strategy & Picks (2025)

We run through Circa Survivor Week 13 picks and strategy, covering both sets of picks on the Thanksgiving and weekend schedule.

by Jason Lisk - Nov 25, 2025

Thanksgiving week is here, with two picks required in the Circa Survivor contest. The first comes from the four games taking place on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. If that pick wins, another pick is required from the Sunday and Monday games in Week 13.

After nearly everyone survived last week, exactly 900 entries advance to the Thanksgiving set of picks. It will be the biggest Thanksgiving ever (easily) in the contest. In fact, there will be more Thanksgiving picks this year than in the previous five years of the contest combined (835 total across 2020 to 2024).

We will go through the contest overview and the two different pick slates, covering what is referred to as 13A (Thanksgiving & Black Friday) and 13B (Sunday & Monday).

Reminder: Our Circa Survivor Picks Product provides current-week data and projections, as well as future-week projections and other tools. You can now view both the Thanksgiving and Week 13B Data Grids, as well as future weeks.

Circa Survivor Strategy Show: Thanksgiving Week 13

Jason Lisk breaks down Circa Survivor strategy for Week 13A and 13B, and gives an overview of how we got to this point.

Subscribe to the PoolGenius YouTube channel for more NFL Survivor & Pool Picks content.

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Circa Survivor Week 13A and 13B: Projected Pick Popularity

Our Circa Survivor Data Grid currently shows the most popular survivor picks for both Thanksgiving and Week 13B. Always refer back to that grid for the most updated numbers.

Keep in mind that the numbers below are as of Tuesday. Particularly regarding Week 13B, check back to the Data Grid on Friday night, as the numbers could shift based on availability changes depending on the 13A results.

Week 13A

• Philadelphia Eagles – 57% (82% available)
• Baltimore Ravens – 31% (33% available)
• Kansas City Chiefs – 4% (54% available)
• Chicago Bears – 3% (67% available)
• Detroit Lions – 2% (18% available)
• Cincinnati Bengals – 1% (89% available)
• Dallas Cowboys – 1% (75% available)
• Green Bay – 0% (0.4% to be exact, 8% available)

The Detroit-Green Bay game has low ownership on both sides, so only a few picks should be in play. Some will use Kansas City (and others might take the underdog Cowboys), but those will also be fairly low-owned.

The drama should arrive on Thanksgiving night and on Black Friday for most, and we project 88% of the picks on Baltimore and Philadelphia, and more on the underdogs facing them.

Week 13B

• Los Angeles Chargers – 47% (72% available)
• Jacksonville Jaguars – 17% (90% available)
• Miami Dolphins – 13% (98% available)
• Los Angeles Rams – 7% (11% available)
• San Francisco 49ers – 7% (63% available)
• Seattle Seahawks – 3% (7% available)
• New England Patriots – 3% (6% available)
• Denver Broncos – 1% (5% available)

The spreads have ballooned on the Week 13B schedule. We have four low-owned teams with high future value and higher win odds, and then the four more available options. Here’s how we see it:

1. We project that around 14% of the pool will use one of the low-owned teams, such as the Rams, Seahawks, or Patriots.
2. The rest should break heavily toward the Chargers as the biggest favorite of the more available teams.
3. Jacksonville will start to become a key Circa team this week and will come up again in the future.
4. Miami has low future value and is favored by 6 points, coming off a bye and facing New Orleans at home.

How Many Winners Should We Expect in 2025?

Each week, we’ll update this section with an Over/Under on the projected number of winners (or the projected finishing week if the contest looks likely to end before anyone reaches 20-0).

After yet another high survival week, we are bumping our number up. But perhaps not as high as some think this is trending. The fact remains that entries have used up many of the teams with the highest win odds down the stretch. There will be some riskier picks, and there will also be a heavy concentration starting this week.

Team	Week	Opponent	Win Odds	Popularity
PHI	13A	CHI	74%	57%
BAL	13A	CIN	74%	32%
LAC	13B	LV	82%	47%
TB	14	NO	77%	47%
SF	15	TEN	81%	34%
HOU	16	LV	80%	45%
KC	17A	DEN	66%	33%
DAL	17A	WAS	57%	33%
JAC	18	TEN	79%	48%

That’s nine different games in which at least one-third of the pool could be eliminated with a loss. The average expectation is 6.7 wins and 2.3 losses. If the wins from that group come in higher, we are going Over our estimate, and if they come in lower, the Under is very much in play.

• We are bumping our estimate of winners to an Over/Under of 19.5.

That number will likely change, either way, once we know the results from this two-pick week. If Baltimore, Philadelphia, and the LA Chargers all win, that will be 3 of those 9, and we will be trending toward a much bigger pot split.

Week 13 Projected Future Value

Our Future Value rankings (also available in the Data Grid for both Week 13A and 13B) show the following top teams entering Week 13.

We also list the availability in parentheses.