Circa Survivor Week 12 Strategy & Picks (2025)

Week 12 Circa Survivor picks and strategy looks at a big decision point week with Baltimore, Detroit, and Seattle, as well as how this week fits in with San Francisco.

by Jason Lisk - Nov 20, 2025

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) takes a direct snap and runs 35-yards for the go-ahead touchdown with 2:31 left in the fourth quarter of the National Football League game between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns on November 16, 2025, at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, OH.

Mark Andrews shows how the Tush Push should be run (Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

A week that looked loaded with landmines (if you didn’t have New England) ended up being surprisingly kind in Week 11. In Circa Survivor, only 61 entries were knocked out, most of them on Atlanta’s OT loss to Carolina. Meanwhile, 32% of the pool advanced riding favorites of less than 7 points, spread across a variety of teams, leaving 939 entries still alive heading into Week 12.

In this post, we’ll go over what to look for in Circa Survivor Week 12: the popularity projections, future value outlook, and teams to consider.

The Circa Grandissimo also remains with all six entries advancing, each with an implied value exceeding $1 million.

Reminder: Our Circa Survivor Picks Product provides current-week data and projections, as well as future-week projections and other tools.

Circa Survivor Feature Update

Before getting into the Week 12 info, a quick note on a feature update. You can now see future individual weeks in both the Data Grid and EV Calculator. We detail it here.

This means that if you want to test some EV scenarios in future weeks, you can adjust our win and popularity estimates and see how it impacts the EV for any given week, including the limited holiday weeks.

Circa Survivor Strategy Show: Week 12

Jason Lisk breaks down Circa Survivor strategy for Week 12, the week before the double-pick holiday week, which has big strategic implications.

Subscribe to the PoolGenius YouTube channel for more NFL Survivor & Pool Picks content.

Circa Survivor Week 12: Projected Pick Popularity

Our Circa Survivor Data Grid currently projects the most popular Week 12 survivor picks on Wednesday as the following (and these will update throughout the week as we continue to track line movement and survivor pick tendencies nationwide):

San Francisco 49ers – 28% (96% available)
Baltimore Ravens – 26% (62% available)
Seattle Seahawks – 24% (29% available)
Detroit Lions – 6% (24% available)
Las Vegas Raiders – 6% (93% available)
Green Bay Packers – 5% (13% available)

We have three double-digit favorites this week. But we are now projecting San Francisco as the most popular team due to availability. More limited availability — and the Thanksgiving and Christmas picks — should limit Baltimore and Detroit from getting as popular as they are in the national data.

How Many Winners Should We Expect in 2025?

Each week, we’ll update this section with an Over/Under on the projected number of winners (or the projected finishing week if the contest looks likely to end before anyone reaches 20-0).

We’ve been on an up-and-down roller coaster, but have generally stayed in the same range over the last month. Our estimate is now 14.5 winners as we enter Week 12. We were at 12.5 last week, 14.5 the week before that, and 12.5 again three weeks ago,

Last week was a high advance rate week (94%), but over half of those advances were made using New England or Baltimore, two high-value teams.

However, in the short term, last week’s high advance rate does increase the number expected to reach the Thanksgiving picks. Unless we get multiple big upsets of the three most popular picks this week, we are likely heading into next week with over 650 entries still in play.

Week 12 Projected Future Value