Circa Survivor Week 11 Strategy & Picks (2025)

Week 11 Circa Survivor picks and strategy focuses on New England, Green Bay, the C.J. Stroud question for Houston, and all the other survivor options for those that need to look elsewhere.

by Jason Lisk - Nov 13, 2025

And then there were a thousand.

The Circa Survivor contest has hit exactly 1,000 remaining entries as we reach the halfway point (in terms of picks to be made) and enter Week 11. Carolina and Buffalo’s losses combined to eliminate most of the 769 entries that were eliminated last week. Carolina was the most popular pick, a team on which our numbers showed a strong fade at high popularity and low EV, and they came in slightly more popular than our projections.

In this post, we’ll go over what to look for in Circa Survivor Week 11: the popularity projections, future value outlook, and teams to consider.

The Circa Grandissimo is also down to just six entries remaining, each with an implied value exceeding $1 million.

Reminder: Our Circa Survivor Picks Product provides current-week data and projections, as well as future-week projections and other tools.

Circa Survivor Strategy Show: Week 11

Jason Lisk breaks down Circa Survivor strategy for Week 11 as the contest is down to the final 1,000 entries.

Subscribe to the PoolGenius YouTube channel for more NFL Survivor & Pool Picks content.

Note: This video was recorded on Wednesday in the late afternoon.

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Circa Survivor Week 11: Projected Pick Popularity

Our Circa Survivor Data Grid currently projects the most popular Week 11 survivor picks on Tuesday as the following (and these will update throughout the week as we continue to track line movement and survivor pick tendencies nationwide):

• New England Patriots – 41% (52% available)
• Houston Texans – 20% (73% available)
• Pittsburgh Steelers – 10% (85% available)
• Green Bay Packers – 10% (23% available)
• Baltimore Ravens – 7% (71% available)
• Atlanta Falcons – 4% (100% available)
• Dallas Cowboys – 4% (78% available)

Compared to last week, more of these popular teams have high availability, with Green Bay and New England being the only two at under 70% availability.

We still expect New England to be quite popular as the biggest favorite of the week, despite playing on Thursday Night Football. However, the availability does cap them from going much above the mid-40s on the high end.

Houston is the wild card of this group. The current projection is for the current spread of -6.5. We still don’t know QB C.J. Stroud’s official status, though, and this spread has room to move either way. It looks more and more like Stroud will be out again, Texans beat reporter Aaron Wilson said Stroud is still experiencing symptoms, but the market will likely react once there is official word.

Your best hope is that the news is confirmed before the pick deadlines for the Thursday game. However, if we haven’t heard by this point, the better course of action is to assume Stroud is out, especially if you have a New England/Houston decision.

How Many Winners Should We Expect in 2025?

Each week, we’ll update this section with an Over/Under on the projected number of winners (or the projected finishing week if the contest looks likely to end before anyone reaches 20-0).

Last week, we published a chart showing the future value used at the same point over the last three years of the contest, to explain why we thought the elimination rates would be pretty high over the second half of the contest. That manifested in Week 10, as the most popular pick was a 5.5-point favorite in Carolina, which lost with 27% popularity.

Last week, our number was 14.5 for the Over/Under on winners, after being at 12.5 the week before. We will go right back to that number.

• Our estimate is 12.5 winners as the Over/Under entering Week 11.

The next three pick weeks have fairly average expected elimination rates. There is some risk of high concentration that could result in bigger wipeouts, but the available options should have relatively higher win odds. After that, though, things are going to be treacherous from Week 13B onward. Many entries will likely be concentrated heavily on teams with a realistic risk of elimination, or spread across other, far riskier choices.

We are also putting this week’s estimate at an Over/Under of 490.5 to reach Thanksgiving, and 56.5 to reach Christmas.

Week 11 Projected Future Value

Our Future Value rankings (also available in the Data Grid, except for teams currently on bye in week 11) show the following top teams entering Week 10. We also list the availability in parentheses.