Circa Survivor Week 10 Strategy & Picks (2025)
Week 10 Circa Survivor picks and strategy. See why the Panthers are relevant and how the Broncos, Bills, and Seahawks factor into the mix.
by Jason Lisk - Nov 4, 2025
Will Rico Dowdle be able to pump up some Circa entries in Week 10? (Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)
Last week was one for the crowd and not for the value contrarians, as the two highest EV plays, Detroit and Green Bay, both went down as favorites of 9 and 13 points, respectively. Only a small number had Detroit because of their double-holiday importance, but 264 went out with Green Bay, and 288 were eliminated in total.
Circa Survivor heads to Week 10 with 1,769 entries, which drops the pool to under 10% of the original starting number for the first time in 2025.
In this post, we’ll go over a tough Week 10 slate, look at the future value and popularity projections in the contest, and then cover some thoughts on the Circa Survivor pick options in Week 10.
At the end, we’ll also add some quick thoughts on the Circa Grandissimo, which now has 11 entries.
Note: We are posting this article on Tuesday, but will add the Week 10 video and pick analysis for both contests by Thursday morning, especially given that Denver plays on Thursday Night Football and profiles as one of the key teams this week.
Reminder: Our Circa Survivor Picks Product provides current-week data and projections, as well as future-week projections and other tools.
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Betting - Survivor - Pick’em
Circa Survivor Strategy Show: Week 10
Jason Lisk breaks down Circa Survivor Picks and Strategy every week on the PoolGenius YouTube Channel.
The video was recorded on the evening of Wednesday, Nov. 5.
Circa Survivor Week 10: Projected Pick Popularity
Our Circa Survivor Data Grid currently projects the most popular Week 10 survivor picks on Tuesday as the following (and these will update throughout the week as we continue to track line movement and survivor pick tendencies nationwide):
- Denver Broncos – 25%
- Carolina Panthers – 24%
- Buffalo Bills – 20%
- Seattle Seahawks – 19%
- Chicago Bears – 8%
- Detroit Lions – 1%
- Baltimore Ravens – 1%
Denver, Buffalo, and Detroit are the three biggest favorites. Detroit is an unexpected one, catching Washington now without QB Jayden Daniels (again), but the holiday factor and low availability will probably keep the pick rate down for Detroit. After all, the same team that they are benefiting from now also has an impact on Christmas (Washington vs. Dallas). That means holding Detroit for Christmas Day, even if it is the road rematch with the Minnesota team they just lost to, probably became an even better play than it looked a week ago.
Denver and Buffalo are limited in how popular they can get. Both teams are available to only around 30% of the pool. Denver also plays on that now even wilder Christmas set of games, and Buffalo has other spots they could be saved for if entries have options.
Entries will likely pivot to Carolina and Seattle. Due to the limited availability of the aforementioned teams, we anticipate that about half of the entries will fall back on Carolina, Seattle (also with somewhat limited availability and future value), and, in some cases, Chicago. There’s no doubt that Carolina will be far more popular, but the decision between Carolina (5.5-point spread) versus Chicago (-3.5) is an interesting one if the ownership comes in near where we project.
How Many Winners Should We Expect in 2025?
Each week, we’ll update this section with an Over/Under on the projected number of winners (or the projected finishing week if the contest looks likely to end before anyone reaches 20-0).
Last week, we bumped the expected number of winners to 12.5. We are going to keep it pretty close, but it goes up slightly with one of the concentrated weeks (with so many picks on the Rams and Chargers) getting through.
- For this week, we are similar at an Over/Under of 14.5 winners.
The bigger impact is on the expected number of people who will make it to Thanksgiving. That increases to 500.5 (from 440.5 last week), while our projection for the number of entries to reach Christmas rises to 65.5 (from 60.5).
However, because the pool has been concentrated on certain teams recently, and this trend is likely to continue due to future value and quality of teams remaining, there will be many risky late weeks where entries will be concentrated on teams that are not as safe as they have been recently (such as the Rams, Chargers, and Colts).
That’s why we expect the numbers to drop from around 500 when Thanksgiving week starts to well under 50 by the time the Christmas games are played, and only two weeks remain in the contest.
This chart, which is also related to our Future Value, illustrates why high late elimination rates over the second half of the contest are possible.
I have written a weekly article for the last two years, and posted Future Value rankings weekly, including entering Week 10 each year. Here’s a comparison of how many teams in different Future Value categories were used before the start of Week 10.
| FV RANK | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOP 5 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| 6 TO 10 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| 11 TO 15 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| 16 TO 20 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| OUTSIDE 20 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
In 2024, we had high early elimination rates; however, the entries that made it through were largely in good future value shape. Entries had, on average, used 4.0 teams that ranked below the Top 15 in remaining Future Value through the first 9 picks. That means they had 10.0 picks from the Top 15 available over the final 11 potential picks of the contest, so the average entry did not have to make many late, riskier picks.
In contrast, 2025 is a lot more similar to 2023, and even more so. In 2023, the average entry had picked 2.3 teams outside the Top 15 in terms of remaining Future Value through 9 weeks, and this year, it’s even lower at 1.9. Entries have had to utilize more of the higher-value teams to reach this point.
Oh, and FYI, in 2023, we went from 1,153 live entries entering Week 10 to only 4 winners. In 2024, when the remaining entries had far more future value left, we saw only 151 entries reach Week 10, but 8 of those eventually won.
Week 10 Projected Future Value
Our Future Value rankings (also available in the Data Grid, except for teams currently on bye in week 10) show the following top teams entering Week 10. We also list the availability in parentheses.
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Detroit Lions (30% available)
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